3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 2/13/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 13.5 Points (-104)

The Miami Heat will be undermanned in tonight's game against the Milwaukee Bucks, so let's look for Jaime Jaquez Jr. to capitalize on the additional scoring opportunities.

Jaquez is averaging 12.9 points per game this season, not too far off from where his points line sits today. But Jimmy Butler (personal), Terry Rozier (knee), and Josh Richardson (shoulder) are all out tonight. These players shoot a combined 34.3 field goal attempts per game, which makes up 40.0% of Miami shot attempts.

Other Heat players will be granted a higher-than-normal shot volume in this one, and I expect Jaquez to get in on the fun as he slips into a starting role.

The Bucks are surrendering the eighth-most points per game in the league. They allow the 10th-most paint points per game, which is where Jaquez nets 57.8% of his points. Milwaukee is also allowing opponents the 11th-most free-throw tries, and Jaquez accumulates 15.7% of his points from behind the stripe.

This will also be a major pace-up game for the Heat. Milwaukee plays at the league's fifth-fastest pace, while Miami plays at the league's fourth-slowest pace. When it comes to opposing scoring, the Bucks are one of the more sacrificial teams in the NBA. This, combined with a faster-than-normal pace of play for Miami, could open the scoring floodgates for Jaquez.

Jaquez has participated in 15 games sans Jimmy Butler. In this span, he exceeded 13.5 points in 11 of those 15 games, averaging 15.8 points per contest. He should find himself in that scoring range tonight.

Markelle Fultz Over 14.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-115)

Markelle Fultz has had a disappointing, injury-riddled NBA career, but I think the market is undervaluing him for Tuesday.

On the season, Fultz is averaging 15.7 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). He has surpassed 14.5 PRA in 13 of his 20 games, which means the 54.1% implied probability for this prop is not as high as the actual hit rate on the over at this line (65.0%).

After returning from an injury in early January, Fultz has made his way back into the starting lineup for the Orlando Magic.

Fultz is averaging 17.4 PRA and has eclipsed 14.5 PRA in 11 of his 14 games in the starting lineup.

The Magic will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder for the first game of an NBA on TNT doubleheader.

OKC is surrendering the sixth-most rebounds and 13th-most assists to guards per 36 minutes. Fultz is scoring a steep 83.7% of his points in the paint, which should pair nicely with this matchup -- the Thunder let up the ninth-most paint points per possession to guards.

Add in a 2.5-point spread and the nature of this pace-up game for Orlando, and I think the 78.6% hit rate on the over at this line when Fultz is in the starting lineup will ring true tonight.

Ben Simmons Over 12.5 Pts + Reb (-111)

From one underperforming but undervalued former number one draft pick to the next.

Ben Simmons is averaging 15.6 combined points and rebounds (PR) for the Brooklyn Nets and has outdone 12.5 PR in nine of his 11 games this season.

With Cameron Johnson (adductor) out, Simmons has moved back into the starting lineup for Brooklyn. He is netting 16.1 PR per contest and has surpassed 12.5 PR in eight of his nine games as a starter this year.

Simmons and the Nets will go up against the Boston Celtics tonight. Although Boston sports the best record in basketball, I don't think they will prove to be too limiting tonight, at least as Simmons' PR numbers are concerned.

The Celtics have been surrendering the third-most rebounds over their last 15 games and the fifth-most over their last 30 games. On the season, they have given up the fourth-most offensive rebounds.

Simmons is a solid rebounder and should take advantage of Boston's weakness on the boards. He is accumulating 2.4 offensive rebounds per game. Plus, he has scored all but three of his total points this season in the paint, so we know he is a solid putback candidate.

Boston, meanwhile, has been ceding the ninth-most putback points per game. Simmons seems primed to get his own rebound and put it back up on the glass, which would create the perfect storm for a solid PR performance.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.