3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Pacers-Celtics Game 2
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Bets
Tyrese Haliburton Over 13.5 Reb + Ast (+118)
After a thrilling overtime battle in Game 1, the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers will run it back tonight at the TD Garden.
Tyrese Haliburton's 25 points, 10 assists, and 3 rebounds may not have been enough to get the Pacers over the hump on Tuesday, but Indiana's star guard will be in a great spot to produce this evening.
In the regular season, Haliburton averaged 14.8 combined rebounds and assists (RA) per game. He's accumulating a slightly lower 13.1 RA in the postseason, but it still seems worthwhile to hone in on these intriguing odds via the alt market.
Accounting for both the regular season and the playoffs, Haliburton is averaging 15.3 RA in games where he has played at least 30 minutes. He eclipsed 13.5 RA at a 65.2% rate in this split (43 out of 66 contests).
Tonight's game features a 224.5-point over/under. While this is a fairly meaty total for a playoff game, it pales in comparison to many of Indiana's high-scoring games in the regular season.
However, even once we adjust the aforementioned 30-plus-minute split to include only games that tipped off with an over/under between 219 and 230 points, Haliburton's numbers are still lethal. He averaged 16.0 RA and exceeded 13.5 RA in 10 out of 14 games (71.4% of contests) in this split. Whichever way you spin it, these +118 odds (45.8% implied probability) show value.
Beyond enticing hit rates at this line, it's easy to fall in love with Haliburton's matchup against Boston.
In the regular season, the Celtics surrendered the sixth-most assists and fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing guards. They've kept at it in the playoffs, letting up the third-most assists and fifth-most rebounds per game to this position.
In Game 1, Haliburton logged 20 potential assists and 8 rebound chances during regulation. He converts potential assists to actual assists at a 61.2% rate while he converts rebound chances to the stat sheet at a 59.7% rate.
This means that -- had he seen typical conversion rates in Game 1 -- he would have recorded 16.9 RA on Tuesday.
FanDuel Research's projections have Haliburton slated to accumulate 15.2 RA in Game 2.
Myles Turner Over 16.5 Points (+100)
I was a bit surprised to find Myles Turner's points prop at this number.
Tuesday's imposing 133-128 final score won't repeat itself again, and that high game total could have given way to inflation in the points prop market this time around.
Turner also went a scorching-hot 9-for-13 from the field in Game 1, serving as another spot where negative regression could rear its head.
But when given the chance to back even-money odds for Turner to eclipse 16.5 points, I have a hard time saying no.
Turner is averaging 17.9 points in the playoffs and has scored over 16.5 points in 9 out of 14 postseason games.
In contests -- including the regular season and playoffs -- where Turner has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 20.4 points and cleared 16.5 points at a 77.1% clip (27 out of 35 games).
His size paired with his outside shooting grants him a solid matchup against Boston.
The Celtics allowed teams to shoot 36.7 three-point attempts (3PA; eighth-most) per game during the regular season. It's been more of the same in the postseason, with Boston surrendering 35.5 3PA (third-most) per contest.
In the playoffs, Turner has been netting 41.8% of his points via threes. Although he's been rocking with a wildly unsustainable 47.3% three-point percentage (3P%) in this span, his outside shot volume could make up for any signs of regression tonight.
Boston lets teams shoot threes at will, and we can't argue with the game plan for them up until this point. Turner's 35.8% 3P% in the regular season is stable enough for me to like his opportunities from downtown.
He could find even more scoring success down low. In the regular season, the Celtics ceded an average of 19.5 FGA (seventh-most) in the paint (non-restricted area). They've since permitted a playoff-high 20.5 FGA from this area. Pascal Siakam is the main candidate to see work in this area, but Turner also relies on netting 46.6% of his points in the paint area as a whole.
Even though Turner has been shooting at an above-average clip as of late, he has proved that he doesn't need to do that in order to clear this prop.
Boston and Indiana each shot a walloping 99 FGA on Tuesday. We will likely see that shot volume fall tonight, but I'd expect Haliburton (14 3PA in Game 1) and Siakam (23 FGA in Game 1) to be more at risk for a bigger scoring drop-off after seeing huge workloads earlier this week.
Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 First Quarter Points (-104)
After scoring 10 points in the first quarter of Game 1, I think Jaylen Brown could have a few more opening-stanza buckets in him.
During the regular season, Brown averaged 7.2 points off of 9.2 minutes per game in the first quarter of action. He's netting 6.9 points from 9.2 minutes in the playoffs.
With that being said, 10 of his 11 postseason games have come against teams that fared in the top 10 of the fewest FGA allowed in the opening period.
The Pacers, meanwhile, allowed the eighth-most FGA and the third-most points to opponents in this split.
Brown has a tendency to come out strong, scoring an average of 31.7% of his total points in the first quarter. He is a candidate to see looks from any area of the floor and can draw contact against a Pacers team that offered up the ninth-most free-throw attempts in the first quarter this year.
In six total games against Indiana this season, Brown is averaging 9.2 points in the initial period. He has recorded over 6.5 points in five out of six of these games, missing by the hook on one occasion.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.