3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 4/29/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 4/29/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Kristaps Porzingis Over 16.5 Points (-102)

We'll kick off today's player props by targeting someone who might be the most undervalued scorer on today's slate.

Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 20.1 points per game for the Boston Celtics and doesn't deserve to have his points prop set this low.

He scored over 16.5 points in 77.2% of his games this season (44 out of 57 contests).

Given the playoff nature of this game, we can probably expect Porzingis and the other Boston starters to log decent minutes. FanDuel Research's projections anticipate him to play 30.87 minutes in this one.

In games where Porzingis has played more than 30 minutes, he is scoring over 16.5 points at an 89.3% rate. These -102 odds imply just a 50.5% probability, but if we were to take that 89.3% hit rate to heart, that would translate to -835 odds.

While there are other factors at play here, and Boston's 107.5 implied team total isn't exactly meaty, it seems clear that this prop is scorching with value.

Porzingis matches up well against the Miami Heat, too.

Miami lets up the 12th-most points to centers per game. Porzingis averaged 20.3 points in three games against them in the regular season. He has scored over 16.5 points in two out of three games in this series, while the lone miss was brought on by a 1-for-9 shooting night.

The Celtics will continue to emphasize the three-ball in this matchup, and there are few better to get going than Porzingis, who averages 2.3 three-point makes (second-most on team) and shoots threes at a solid 41.2% clip.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Pts + Ast (-113)

The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to complete the series sweep against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight, and we may have found Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a buy-low spot.

This season, SGA is averaging 36.3 combined points and assists (PA). Our projections have him set to play 36.27 minutes this evening, and in games where he's played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 37.9 PA.

If we check out this same 30-plus-minute split, SGA has cleared 33.5 PA at an 80.0% rate (48 out of 60 games), while -113 odds suggest just a 53.1% probability.

We're in the playoffs, and with that typically comes slower-paced and lower-scoring games than normal. Even still, SGA has managed to average an even 34.0 PA in this series, and I think there's reason to believe we could see a faster-paced game as New Orleans looks elimination in the eye.

The Pelicans won't stay alive via their defense, especially with Zion Williamson gone. I'd expect a disorganized New Orleans group to throw everything at the wall in this one and try to run out ahead for the duration of this game.

And for as bad as the Pelicans performed in Game 3, head coach Willie Green and company should be able to make things competitive on their home floor as they risk a first-round sweep. This could abet any sniffs of blowout potential.

The OKC-NOP showdown features a 4.5-point spread (closest on today's slate), so I'm excited to see what SGA can do under these advantageous circumstances.

D'Angelo Russell Over 20.5 Pts + Ast (-120)

He's not the player the Los Angeles Lakers want or need, but D'Angelo Russell is still making a mighty impact on the stat sheet.

On the season, Russell is averaging 24.3 PA per game. Our projections expect him to log 40.3 minutes in tonight's Game 5 versus the Denver Nuggets.

Luckily, Russell is averaging 26.9 PA and has surpassed 20.5 PA in 71.9% of games (41 out of 57 contests) where he has played at least 30 minutes.

From a value perspective, this prop checks all of the boxes. However, it's not easy to forget Russell's showing in Game 3 of this series, where he put up a goose egg in the points column and received bench treatment.

Russell knows how to leave us with a sour taste in our mouths, but he did bounce back in a Game 4 victory to record 25.0 PA and tout a team-best positive 15 plus/minus ratio.

Gabe Vincent and Spencer Dinwiddie haven't been much help off the bench, so I'd expect the Lakers to ride with Russ in this one. After all, the two closest games of this series collided with 29 PA and 25 PA nights for Russell.

Our projections forecast 24.8 PA for Russell, so I'm happy to back him in this spot despite how sour it may feel.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay for any NBA playoff game happening April 29th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.