NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 4/5/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Damian Lillard Over 28.5 Points (-105)

We've got a lot of players out today, and one of the biggest names featured on the injury report is Giannis Antetokounmpo (hamstring; doubtful).

With Giannis out and the Milwaukee Bucks taking on the dumpster fire that is the Toronto Raptors, Damian Lillard should be in for a big night.

Lillard has played in five games without Giannis. In this split, he is averaging 31.6 points and has scored at least 31 points in all but one game. In the one contest where Lillard missed the mark, he was limited to just 25 minutes because Milwaukee got blown out by a whopping 40 points.

We won't see Milwaukee get blown out tonight. The Raptors have lost 15 straight games and have shown no interest in playing defense.

During this 15-game losing streak, Toronto is playing at the fifth-fastest pace and letting up 122.9 points per game (most), which is 22.2 more points per game than the team (New York Knicks) that has allowed the fewest points in this split.

The Raptors have also been letting up the second-most three-point makes (3PM), which is where Lillard nets 38.0% of his points.

A matchup against a fast-paced, non-existent defense coupled with Giannis on the sidelines has me very high on Dame. There will always be some blowout risk when playing this current iteration of the Raptors, but Milwaukee hasn't been great, either. They've lost four of their last five games and are now without Giannis, who ranks third in the league in Player Impact Estimate.

Al Horford Over 16.5 Pts + Reb (-111)

Jaylen Brown and Derrick White will both be out for the Boston Celtics tonight. Is a big Al Horford game loading?

The veteran has taken on a reduced role for Boston this year, and Joe Mazzulla has made sure to afford him plenty of rest days. But if the time is right, Horford is a great player to target in the props market.

When a starter or two is out for the Celtics, Horford slides back into the starting lineup and proves that he still has big games in him. I find that, typically, the market does not properly adjust for Horford's lines when he is in this spot.

In seven games without Jaylen Brown this season, Horford is averaging 20.2 combined points and rebounds (PR). In 31 games as a starter, he is averaging 17.3 PR and has recorded over 16.5 PR in 18 of those 31 contests.

On/off stats vouch for Horford, too. He's netting 20.2 PR per 36 minutes this season, but when White and Brown are off the court, he manages 22.0 PR per 36 minutes.

The Celtics will host the Sacramento Kings this evening. The Kings play at a faster pace than the Celtics and permit the 11th-most 3PM per game. We should be intrigued by Sacramento's below-average three-point defense, as Horford nets 57.7% of his points from downtown.

Horford will not only play more minutes than normal in this one, but he'll also act as a scorer in times when he would usually act as a facilitator.

Tyrese Haliburton To Record 10+ Assists (-150)

The NBA's assist leader can manage double-digit assists tonight, right?

I think so, and the numbers show that we are getting a solid deal on this prop.

Tyrese Haliburton is averaging 11.0 assists per game. He has dealt out at least 10 dimes in 70.3% of his games while these -150 odds imply only a 60.0% probability.

If we take out a few games where Hali played fewer than 25 minutes, he is recording at least 10 assists at a 76.3% rate (45 out of 59 games).

The Indiana Pacers (2nd in pace) will meet up with the Oklahoma City Thunder (7th in pace) this evening, so we should expect a fast game that affords both sides plenty of possessions.

Haliburton has been awesome in high-tempo games. In 21 contests against fellow top-10 pace teams, he is averaging 11.2 dimes and has registered at least 10 assists in 16 of those games.

If we remove a pair of games in this split where he played fewer than 28 minutes, he is averaging 11.5 assists and cleared 10 dimes in 16 out of 19 games. This includes one game against Oklahoma City -- wherein Hali ended up with 12 assists.

I'm pleased to get this prop at -150. But if you're looking for a prop with higher odds, Tyrese Haliburton To Record 12+ Assists at +200 is worth consideration, too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.