3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/23/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+390)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 4.95 implied run total and could exceed that in a hurry tonight.

They are on the road against the Cleveland Guardians, who will have Xzavion Curry on the bump tonight. Curry is a rookie and brings a mixed bag of results thus far.

Curry comes in allowing a .281 SLG, 4.46 xFIP, 0.26 HR/9, 40.8% fly-ball rate, 36.4% hard-contact rate, and 2.5% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters. For reference, the league averages against lefties this season are a .417 SLG, 4.47 xFIP, 1.24 HR/9, 37.6% fly-ball rate, 32.3% hard-contact rate, and 12.8% HR/FB ratio.

Curry is allowing more fly balls and more hard contact in this split, yet so few of them are going for home runs. Much like yesterday with Mike Clevinger, we have another pitcher who is due for some negative regression.

If Curry is expected to see some regression, I want to be on that side with Freddie Freeman to hit a home run. He comes in with a 150 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .196 ISO, 38.8% fly-ball rate, and 35.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

With solid odds, I'll take Freeman in this spot any day. Of course, I'll also add Freeman To Record an RBI (+120), too.

Ronald Acuna To Record an RBI (+120)

With plus money odds and a great matchup, Ronald Acuna is a great option for a player prop tonight.

Acuna is the odds-on favorite (-360) to win the NL MVP and we get a simple RBI prop at plus money, there's no reason to overthink this.

He is rocking a 150 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .220 ISO, .329 BABIP, 15.6% strikeout rate, and 52.0% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers. Acuna doesn't waste chances at the plate and is consistently putting the ball in play.

With a slate-high 5.43 implied run total, the Braves are in a prime spot to score some runs tonight.

Acuna will be up against Jose Quintana, who has allowed a .364 SLG, .311 wOBA, 5.07 xFIP, .322 BABIP, and 37.4% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters this season.

This matchup shouldn't be an issue for the Braves' hitters and plenty of runs will cross the plate.

Aaron Civale Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+112)

Finally, let's look at under 5.5 strikeouts for Aaron Civale.

The league average strikeout rate this season is 22.7% along with an 11.2% swinging strike rate. When we turn to Civale, he comes in with an 18.4% strikeout rate and 9.1% swinging strike rate.

Civale is simply not a big strikeout pitcher and doesn't make hitters swing and miss. This has caused Civale to be under this 5.5 mark in nine of his last 10 outings. We also see Civale with 90 pitches or fewer in half of those 10 starts.

If he isn't going deep into the game, he won't have the time to pick up a ton of strikeouts -- something he isn't great at, to begin with.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the MLB odds.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.