3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 10/3/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
MLB Prop Bets to Target
Christian Yelich To Hit A Home Run (+500)
Brandon Pfaadt is on the bump for the D’Backs -- and he isn’t your typical Game 1 ace. While every other starter for Tuesday’s slate ranks in the top 20 of ERA and/or strikeout rate, Pfaadt is nowhere to be found on the leaderboards.
He suffers from a 5.72 ERA and has allowed eight home runs in his last seven starts. This should give the Brew Crew ample opportunities to get their bats going early, and I’m eyeing Christian Yelich to put up big numbers for Milwaukee.
Though he hasn’t had the MVP-caliber performance of years past, Yelich has remained lights-out against right-handed pitchers this season, posting a .378 wOBA, .489 slugging percentage, 21.6% HR/FB ratio, 43.9% hard-hit rate, and 138 wRC+ in the split.
Given that most teams have their ace on the mound for Game 1, Tuesday’s slate isn’t exactly riddled with advantageous matchups for batters. Yelich not only benefits from Pfaadt’s season-long woes and his own righty status, but he should also prove to be a difficult left-handed batter for Pfaadt to punch out. Pfaadt allows a .534 slugging percentage, 18.0% HR/FB ratio, 45.2% fly-ball rate, and a colossal 2.22 home runs per nine innings to lefties.
All this, plus the added bonus of decent +500 odds, makes Yelich a stellar home-run option to target. If you are hesitant to pull the trigger on Yeli going yard, I'd look for Christian Yelich To Record A Run (-130). He bats leadoff for Milwaukee, and his numbers prove he is primed to live on the base paths today.
Leody Taveras To Record 2+ Bases (+175)
Tyler Glasnow is taking the mound for Tampa Bay, and if you’re a Ranger righty, you might as well stay in the dugout. Glasnow’s numbers against right-handed batters are lethal -- he sacrifices a mere .164 batting average, .211 wOBA and boasts a whopping 33.8% strikeout rate.
Glasnow comes back down to Earth quite a bit against lefties. He lets up a .311 wOBA, .416 slugging percentage, 20.5% HR/FB ratio, and 1.29 home runs per nine innings to southpaw batters.
There are only a few left-handed batters in the Texas lineup, but they all should see decent opportunities this late afternoon. The one I'm most interested in is Leody Taveras -- I’m targeting him to take advantage of Glasnow.
Taveras has solid splits against right-handed pitchers, including a .329 wOBA, .449 slugging percentage, and 106 wRC+. He is also fresh off the heels of a fruitful September bid as he recorded a .310 batting average and 119 wRC+ in the month.
Beyond the handedness perks of this matchup, Taveras' bettors should also take solace in the fact that he smashes the ball when thrown fastballs and sliders, coming into the playoffs with a statline of 2.8 fastball runs above average and 3.0 slider runs above average (highest out of all pitches). Glasnow deploys the fastball and slider in his arsenal a combined 78.4% of the time, giving further credence to the notion that Taveras is set up to produce tonight.
With Tavares at +175 odds to record two-plus bases, that looks like the best hitting prop on the board for this game, but if you are looking for a more guarded option, I’d target Leody Taveras To Record A Hit at -160 -- numberFire's model projects him to get at least that.
Jesús Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
With Miami looking to make the most of October baseball, ace Jesus Luzardo will take the mound, and he should be in line for some strikeouts.
Though the Phillies boast an intimidating, power-heavy lineup, they are quite familiar with striking out. This season, Philadelphia's active roster posted a 23.9% strikeout rate (11th-highest in MLB). These numbers have been exacerbated as of late, with the Phils clocking in a 26.1% strikeout rate (sixth-highest) in the final month of the regular season.
This should prove to be a solid matchup for Luzardo.
Luzardo has posted excellent punchout numbers for Miami this season. He touts a 28.1% strikeout rate (seventh in MLB) and averages 10.48 Ks per nine innings (eighth).
Given the severity of this three-game series, we can reasonably expect Luzardo to have a somewhat lengthy outing. The Marlins’ bullpen combines for a 4.37 ERA (21st-worst), so there’s no good reason why the relief pitching arms would get called on early in the game.
This start will be the only time that Miami’s best pitcher makes an appearance in the NL Wild Card series, so look for manager Skip Schumaker to squeeze the Luzardo lemon as much as he can.
In last season’s four Wild Card Game 1s, starting pitchers threw an average of 6.4 innings. I expect Luzardo to fall right in line with that, which is great news for the over on this prop. In his last 12 starts in which he has pitched six-plus innings, Luzardo has fanned at least six batters in all but one of the outings. Further, in 12.1 innings pitched against Philadelphia this season, he struck out 14 batters, putting him in a perfect spot to get at least six strikeouts tonight.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.