3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 10/19/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets to Target

Jose Abreu To Hit A Home Run (+430)

After hosting a hit parade last night, the Houston Astros made things interesting in the ALCS and will look to even the series tonight against the Texas Rangers.

Andrew Heaney is taking the mound for the Rangers, and his left-handedness could pair nicely with some of the power bats in the Houston lineup.

To start, we should target a right-handed batter; Heaney allows a .448 SLG, 14.4% HR/FB ratio, 45.3% fly-ball ratio, and 1.64 HR/9 to players with this handedness.

I'd look for Jose Abreu to make a potential meal out of Heaney. Abreu's overall season stats are shaky, but we can't be too concerned with spring numbers in the postseason.

In his last 50 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, Abreu has smashed the ball, posting a .696 SLG, 30.0% HR/FB ratio, 51.4% hard-hit rate, 57.1% fly-ball rate, and 159 wRC+.

Though he hasn't necessarily been the highlight out the Astros lineup this postseason, he's still had plenty of bright spots, recording 17 total bases over seven games. He's also swatted three home runs.

Globe Life Field is one of the more friendlier ballparks for home runs, and Abreu has been trouble for Heaney so far in their matchups (four home runs in 19 at-bats), so I think this handedness matchup puts Abreu in a decent spot to hit a four-bagger tonight.

Bryce Harper to Record a Run (-130)

It's become nearly impossible to fade the Philadelphia Phillies bats, and the 9.0-run total matchup against a volatile Brandon Pfaadt does any case against the Phils no favors.

Pfaadt has been an unreliable presence on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's been fine in the postseason thus far, posting seven innings and three earned runs stat line through two games, but his overall 5.72 ERA was consistent throughout the regular season.

Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Brandon Marsh have all been lethal against right-handed batters -- both on the season as whole and in the postseason -- so I like their chances to do the most damage in Game 3.

As Pfaadt's splits go, he gives up nearly identical OBP, SLG, and wOBA to righties and lefties. Lefties see an uptick in power production against him (2.22 HR/9 to LHB; 1.93 HR/9 to RHB), so if you're looking to side with a home run prop for any of those three Philly batters, I'd look to Harper or Marsh.

I'd keep my eye on the batter props for all three of those aformentioned batters, but the prop I find most value in is Harper to hit home plate.

I don't need to tell you that Harper has been excellent in the playoffs, but his splits against righties this year are always worth repeating -- a .295 batting average, .494 SLG, and a 144 wRC+. His splits against this handedness saw a major uptick in his final 125 plate appearances in the regular season, including a .645 SLG, 188 wRC+, 36.0% HR/FB ratio, and 50.7% hard-hit rate.

Harper has recorded at least two bases in three out of eight postseason games thus far, and his odds to record 2+ bases stand at -120. Meanwhile, he's recorded a run in seven out of eight postseason games, so the -130 odds on this line provide better value.

Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+128)

Ranger Suarez is on the bump for the Phillies tonight, and, quite frankly, this may be the best value strikeout prop I've seen in quite some time.

Suarez punched out at least four batters in 20 out of his 24 starts this year. Knowing that he's cleared this prop in 83.3% of his outings is as good of a place to start as you can get.

He maintained a 22.0% strikeout rate (60th) and 8.6 K/9 ratio (51st) this season, which places him right around league average. These are clearly not monstrous numbers, but he doesn't need monstrous numbers to strike out four batters. Plus, in his final five starts in the regular season, he saw an uptick in these numbers, posting a 24.6% strikeout rate and 9.8 Ks per nine.

The Arizona lineup has gone up against Suarez twice this season. Suarez posted a combined stat line of 12 innings, 5 earned runs, and 12 Ks with at least five punchouts in each outing.

Though Arizona was not a strikeout-prone team in the regular season, holding a mere 20.4% strikeout rate (27th), they've been very familiar with Ks in the playoffs, putting up a 26.8% strikeout rate (second-highest among 12 postseason teams).

There are two pieces of evidence that one could cite in favor of the under -- but neither holds up. First off, one of the four games this season where Suarez failed to clear this prop came in his most recent start, so some could say the trend is not present.

However, he was going up against a strikeout-resistant Atlanta Braves team, and we shouldn't let one miss distract from the fact that he cleared the over for this line in the eight games prior.

Second, he's been victim to a small pitch count so far in the postseason, failing to throw for over 70 pitches in any start, but he still fanned four batters in his 53-pitch outing in the NLDS.

However, all signs point to Suarez taking the mound for a typical amount of time tonight. Phillies manager Rob Thomson explained that Suarez was yanked early due to the built-in days off, which allowed for ample bullpen flexibility. Now that the Phils are scheduled for a game tomorrow -- as well as Saturday if necessary -- Thomson expressed that he hopes Suarez can "give us some length" in Game 3. This should go hand-in-hand with Suarez clearing the value-laden over here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.