MLB

3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Monday 4/1/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Monday 4/1/24

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and odds may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Sean Manaea, P, Mets ($7,400)

Sean Manaea stars in today's episode of "Which Left-handed Pitcher Faces the Detroit Tigers?"

After finishing with the ninth-lowest wOBA (.309) and a middling 22.7% strikeout rate against southpaws last season, Detroit is back at it again in 2024. Through 33 plate appearances, the Tigers have the fourth-lowest wOBA (.235) and ninth-highest strikeout rate (27.3%) in that split.

It's a small sample, sure, but their resume in 2023 and early results from 2024 suggest Detroit will again be an advantageous matchup for southpaws. We saw Garrett Crochet dust them for eight strikeouts and 43 FanDuel points on Opening Day -- something Manaea will look to replicate tonight.

The 32-year-old is coming off a successful season with the San Francisco Giants that saw him rack up a 4.01 xFIP and career-best marks in both strikeout rate (25.7%) and hard-hit rate (36.4%). He signed with the New York Mets this offseason and should benefit from hurling at Citi Field -- Statcast's third-best ballpark for pitchers.

With cool temperatures and Detroit owning the slate's lowest implied total (3.56), Manaea is set up for a strong start and comes via a reasonable salary on FanDuel.

numberFire projections have Manaea pitching 5.09 innings, allowing 1.9 runs, and striking out 5.83. That culminates in 30.6 FanDuel points (FPs), making him the second-best point-per-dollar value among pitchers (4.14 FPs per $1,000).

Justin Turner, 1B/3B, Blue Jays ($2,800)

The Toronto Blue Jays have a healthy 4.16 implied total against the Houston Astros while the over/under is set at 9.0 runs.

With Houston temperatures in the high-70s with near-80% humidity by first pitch, Minute Maid Park figures to be a reliable spot for runs tonight. Consequently, we can turn to Justin Turner for some value at either first or third base. The 39-year-old is coming off a 3-for-4 game where he homered, drove in four runs, and scored twice himself.

That was easily his best game of the young campaign after signing with Toronto this offseason. The long-time vet didn't show many signs of age last season, batting .276 with 23 home runs and 96 RBI.

Tonight, Turner will square off with Houston's Ronel Blanco. The righty appeared in 17 games last season, pitching 52.0 total innings. He wasn't especially impressive, posting a 5.12 xFIP and 1.48 WHIP while surrendering an 11.8% barrel rate. He gave up multiple runs in all seven starts and multiple home runs in five.

Turner owns relatively even splits against righties and lefties for his career, though he was better against southpaws last season. Still, he managed a .332 wOBA against righties last year and was actually better against them in 2022, so we shouldn't worry too much about him facing such an inexperienced starter.

numberFire projects Turner for 12.5 FanDuel points, making him the third-best point-per-dollar value among hitters (4.46 FPs per $1,000).

Alex Verdugo, OF, Yankees ($2,700)

With four straight wins to start the year, something tells me the New York Yankees will be incredibly popular for DFS this season.

That's true again tonight as they're one of the top stacks for today's main slate.

In a road date with the Arizona Diamondbacks, I'm comfortable dipping down the order to garner Alex Verdugo's services.

Verdugo has gotten off to a solid, albeit quiet start with the Yanks. He's picked up a hit in three of four games thus far, though he's only driven in one run and scored once himself.

Still, he's struck out only twice in 15 at-bats -- an ongoing trend for a player whose strikeout rate hasn't been north of 16% since 2020. He's still looking for his first barrel but has notably registered a 35.7% hard-hit rate thus far. That's nothing out of this world, but it's a solid start to the year, nonetheless.

Against Arizona's Ryne Nelson, Verdugo could be in for his first big game of the season.

Nelson himself isn't someone we should be afraid of. The 26-year-old righty posted a 5.30 xFIP across 144 innings last season, surrendering an 11.6% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate in the process. Ryne struck out just 15.5% of the hitters he faced and finished with a 1.42 WHIP.

That's not someone the Yankees should struggle with -- there's a reason New York has the slate's highest implied total (5.16).

In turn, Verdugo is set up well. Notably, the lefty fared much better against righties last season, as 12 of his 13 home runs came against righties. His .793 OPS and .338 wOBA in that split were noticeably better than his .608 OPS and .277 wOBA against lefties.

With New York expected to put on a show, Alex Verdugo makes for a solid value at a manageable salary tonight.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.