3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/8/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Home Run Prop Bets

Ronald Acuna Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+360)

With a 5.80 implied run total, the Atlanta Braves are expected to flex their offense tonight against the New York Mets.

The Braves and a high implied run total go together like peanut butter and jelly, so we can always target them for some player props. Tonight, we'll start with Ronald Acuna Jr., who is primed to grab his first home run of the season.

Acuna is elite across the board and finished last season with a 174 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .262 ISO, 45.2% hard-contact rate, 31.7% fly-ball rate, and 22.9% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. He's the reigning NL MVP for a reason and it's because he puts up great numbers in any matchup.

Tonight, he'll be going up against Julio Teheran, who struggled last season against righty hitters with a .479 SLG, 4.27 xFIP, 1.45 HR/9, 34.5% fly-ball rate, and 35.3% hard-contact rate.

Despite having some strong exit velocities to start the season, Acuna has yet to hit a homer this season. This is a good matchup for him to grab what will be the first of many this year. I'll add Acuna to Record an RBI (+110), too.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+390)

A game at Coors Field is always a great spot to target for home run props.

Coors Field is the best hitter's park in MLB and it offers immense offensive upside, making this a clear spot for some homers.

The Colorado Rockies will have Kyle Freeland on the mound tonight, who is one of the worst pitchers in the MLB and I will target him every single time he is on the mound.

Last season, Freeland allowed a .380 wOBA, .545 SLG, 5.38 xFIP, 1.94 HR/9, 40.6% fly-ball rate, and 41.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. This is essentially the ideal pitching profile to see when we are looking for a home run prop.

This leads me to Ketel Marte, who had a 138 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .184 ISO, 36.1% hard-contact rate, and 34.2% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers. Marte is off to a great start this season with three homers and can certainly continue that tonight, so I'll add Marte to Record an RBI (+100), too.

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+520)

A good matchup for the Pittsburgh Pirates could offer some home run upside tonight.

They will be taking on Reese Olson, who is a young and unproven pitcher for the Detroit Tigers. He showed some signs of upside last year but there are also some clear signs of struggles.

Last season, Olson allowed a .376 SLG, 4.34 xFIP, 1.21 HR/9, 41.0% fly-ball rate, and 37.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. It's a rather uninspiring set of metrics and points to some home run potential.

We'll turn to Oneil Cruz, who ended 2022 with a 130 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .248 ISO, 39.9% fly-ball rate, and 35.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He is blistering the ball this season with 10 batted balls hit with 100 mph of exit velocity. I'll add Cruz to Record an RBI (+175), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.