3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/29/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+390)

As usual, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a big 5.25 implied run total and can pile up the runs in a hurry.

We know the Dodgers have plenty of power in their lineup and that could be on full display tonight given their matchup against Tommy Henry.

Last season, Henry allowed a .405 SLG, .316 wOBA, 5.22 xFIP, 1.08 HR/9, 43.7% fly-ball rate, and 31.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. This season, things are looking the same for Henry with a .543 SLG, .394 wOBA, and 1.65 HR/9.

With several great hitters in the Dodgers' lineup, I'm looking to Teoscar Hernandez, who brings a good combination of power and home run odds.

Hernandez comes in with a 134 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .294 ISO, 37.5% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. It's a solid matchup all around so I'll add Hernandez to Record an RBI (+100), too.

Rhys Hoskins to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Next up, let's look to Rhys Hoskins of the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brew Crew have a 4.25 implied run total at home as they are set to take on the Tampa Bay Rays, who will have Ryan Pepiot on the bump.

To this point in the season, Pepiot has allowed 1.15 HR/9, 71.4% fly-ball rate, and 37.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those numbers are high and due for some negative regression at some point, but he's struggling right now and worth targeting.

Hoskins has a 121 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .229 ISO, 52.5% fly-ball rate, and 37.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Hoskins has hit five of his six homers against righties, so this is the split to target. I'll add Hoskins to Record an RBI (+150), too.

Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+330)

With an elite skillset at the plate, Salvador Perez could knock one over the fence tonight.

Perez comes in with amazing underlying metrics to start the 2024 season, as he sits in the 90th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, per BaseballSavant.

The veteran hasn't lost a step and is crushing the ball versus righties with a 185 wRC+, .437 wOBA, .278 ISO, 47.8% fly-ball rate, and 44.9% hard-contact rate.

Love to see those types of numbers along with a good matchup versus Yariel Rodriguez, who is a young and unproven pitcher, with only 11.2 innings pitched at the MLB level this season.

In this short time, Rodriguez has allowed a .517 SLG, 2.45 HR/9, 42.1% fly-ball rate, and 36.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

I'll trust the veteran in this matchup, and I'll add Perez to Record an RBI (+115), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.