3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 4/26/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+480)

The Los Angeles Dodgers head north of the border to take on the Toronto Blue Jays, in what should be a high-scoring series.

A 4.65 implied run total is always a good spot to target for one of the best offenses in the league and it could lead to plenty of homers.

Chris Bassitt will be on the mound for the Blue Jays, a pitcher who has continued to struggle versus lefties. This season, Bassitt has allowed a .587 SLG, 6.43 xFIP, 2.61 HR/9, 46.2% hard-contact rate, and 33.3% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters.

This brings me to Freddie Freeman, who crushed righties last year with a 158 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .218 ISO, 37.1% hard-contact rate, and 36.8% fly-ball rate. Freeman is a proven hitter and has a tasty matchup tonight, so I'll add Freeman To Record an RBI (+110), too.

Marcell Ozuna To Hit a Home Run (+390)

Marcell Ozuna is one of the best home run hitters in the league this season and we get great odds tonight.

The hottest hitters in the league don't often have favorable odds for a homer but +390 is a good spot to target for Ozuna.

He's up against Logan Allen, who hasn't been able to contain righty hitters this season with a .553 SLG, 4.12 xFIP, 2.05 HR/9, 36.2% fly-ball rate, and 30.4% hard-contact rate. With some nice warm-hitting weather in Atlanta tonight, we could see the ball flying.

Ozuna comes in with a 193 wRC+, .463 wOBA, .226 ISO, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 37.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. They have a slate-high 4.99 implied run total and could easily push past that with this lineup. I'll add Ozuna To Record an RBI (+130), too.

Lourdes Gurriel To Hit a Home Run (+560)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have some power in their lineup and a good matchup to show that off.

They are up against Emerson Hancock, who has a total of 32.2 innings pitched at the MLB between last year and this year combined. Over that time, he's allowed a .547 SLG, 4.43 xFIP, 2.81 HR/9, 44% fly-ball rate, and 21.7% HR/FB ratio. While some of these numbers will stabilize as his sample size grows, he's this bad now and that's what we want to attack.

We look to Lourdes Gurriel, who comes in with a 123 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .186 ISO, 42.9% hard-contact rate, and 38.8% fly-ball rate, giving us an elite set of skills.

It's great all around so I'll add Gurriel To Record an RBI (+140).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.