3 Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets for Week 16

Looking for a new way to bet on the NFL this season? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!

SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.

This article will provide some SGPs builds to consider each week based on the games and props available, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!

Which correlated bets stand out for this week's NFL action?

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL SGP Bets to Target: Week 16

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Over 41.5 Points (-115)
Isiah Pacheco Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Nico Collins Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+150)

Combined Odds: +522

Earlier in the week, Patrick Mahomes' status was up in the air with a high ankle sprain, but he's ready to go after being removed from the injury report on Thursday. With Mahomes in action, this aids the over for Saturday's bout between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs.

numberFire's NFL game projections have the two combining for about 46.7 points, giving the over a 63.9% likelihood. Despite both teams sitting in the top eight of schedule-adjusted defense, we have reason to believe in each offense.

We have a couple of player props that pair well with the over. Starting with the Chiefs' offense, Houston is slightly weaker against the run, ranked as the second-best adjusted pass defense and seventh-best adjusted rush defense. The Texans cede 4.3 yards per carry (11th-fewest) compared to 6.5 yards per passing attempt (3rd-fewest). Kansas City is showing better efficiency on the ground, as well, sporting the 8th-best adjusted rush offense compared to the 11th-best adjusted pass offense.

Since Isiah Pacheco returned from injury in Week 13, this has been a split backfield. Pacheco hasn't reached a 50% snap share over the last three and has been under 40% in two of those contests. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt is still getting notable work with snap shares of 38%, 29%, and 37% during that three-game span.

Of the two, I'd rather back the over for Pacheco. I get it; his workload hasn't been intriguing, and he was dead even with Hunt in carries a week ago (13 each). However, this seems to be a hot hand approach as Pacheco logged -0.96 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) compared to Hunt's -0.33 last week, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Maybe Hunt was the better back for one game, but I can't ignore Pacheco's 0.30 RYOE/C compared to Hunt's -0.80 over the last three games.

It's clear who's the best halfback for the Chiefs. Our NFL DFS projections have Pacheco logging 13.2 rushing attempts for 57.6 rushing yards. This is also a plus compared to Hunt's projected 8.4 carries. A larger workload is expected for Pacheco.

Moving on to the final leg of our Same Game Parlay, targeting the Texans' passing attack is a wise move. When Nico Collins is active, C.J. Stroud sports 0.01 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db). While this is nothing remarkable, Stroud posted -0.17 EPA/db in five games without Collins in the lineup.

With that said, Stroud seems much more capable of tearing up this Chiefs secondary with his best buddy starting. Kansas City sports the 14th-best adjusted pass defense compared to the 6th-best adjusted rush defense.

Collins has found the end zone three times over his last three outings. He also touts a team-high 35.5% red zone target share this season. Since returning from injury in Week 11, Collins still leads the squad in red zone target share (28.6%) during the four-game span. If this passing game is to find success on Saturday, Collins will likely be heavily involved.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Cardinals Under 26.5 Points (-106)
Chuba Hubbard Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Trey McBride 70+ Receiving Yards (-110)

Combined Odds: +497

The Arizona Cardinals taking on the Carolina Panthers has been a hot topic in fantasy football this week. A few players are priority targets for DFS, including Trey McBride as TE1 in our projections, James Conner holding RB7 for this week, and Chuba Hubbard sitting as RB12 in projections.

While this game has a few juicy matchups, this doesn't necessarily mean the total will soar. It's already somewhat high at 47.5 points, and this includes the Cardinals sporting a 26.5-point total. Our Brandon Gdula has this game with the third-slowest adjusted pace this week.

Each team has thriving running backs as Conner has amassed 0.36 RYOE/C and Hubbard boasts 0.92 RYOE/C. Considering each rush defense is in the bottom six of adjusted rankings, each team's game plan on offense seems as clear as day: run the rock. Arizona listed as only 4.5-point favorites should keep this one interesting, too, preventing negative game scripts for either side.

The under for the Cardinals' team prop carries more value at -106 compared to -115 for under the 47.5-point combined total. numberFire's projections have Arizona logging only 22.4 points in this one.

Sticking with the theme of running the ball, getting any exposure to the tailbacks should yield success. At the time of writing this piece, Conner's props are not up yet. I'm more than fine with backing Hubbard.

Hubbard has simply been terrific, averaging 75.6 rushing yards on 18.4 rushing attempts per game (4.1 yards per carry) over his last five games. Following the season-ending knee injury to Jonathon Brooks, Hubbard has virtually no competition for snaps with at least a 95% snap rate in back-to-back games.

Arizona's rush defense has struggled by allowing 4.5 yards per carry (13th-most) and 121.4 rushing yards per game (15th-most). Hubbard should get plenty of work as he's projected 17.9 rushing attempts for 75.8 rushing yards.

Rounding out our parlay, we have to get exposure to McBride. He's TE1 across Week 16's slate in projections, and it comes with good reason as he's averaged 10.0 receptions and 96.5 receiving yards per game on 12.8 targets per contest over his previous four outings. McBride even touts a 34.9% target share during that same span; that is unheard of volume for a tight end.

The Panthers surrender the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. This alone gives us enough to back McBride for 70+ receiving yards (-110). We get a little more value out of this compared to over his 68.5-receiving yard prop (-114).

While McBride is currently making history with the most receptions (89) without a touchdown, this matchup may be good enough to finally have him finding the end zone. Over the last month, he has a 47.4% red zone target share. Some of this can be boiled down to back luck; positive regression feels imminent. Additionally, McBride has the second-highest touchdown projection among tight ends this week (0.38).

If you can get past the curse, his +125 odds to score a touchdown would take this parlay to +1143.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Baker Mayfield 250+ Passing Yards (+110)
Mike Evans Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+105)
Rico Dowdle Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Combined Odds: +540

Since Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers returned from injury in Week 12, his passing game is better than ever.

Over the last four games, Baker Mayfield is recording 9.3 yards per passing attempt and 278.0 passing yards per game paired with 0.14 EPA/db. When Evans was out from Week 8 to 10, Baker was down to 215.3 passing yards per game, 5.9 yards per passing attempt, and 0.06 EPA/db.

Similar to Collins uplifting Stroud on the Texans, Mayfield and Evans is another pairing that provides instant results. With that said, stacking these two for Sunday night's game against the Dallas Cowboys is wise for building a Same Game Parlay.

Dallas has the 13th-best adjusted pass defense compared to the worst rush D. However, this is still the ninth-worst overall adjusted defense. The biggest key will likely be limiting the Cowboys' pass rush, which has dramatically improved since Micah Parsons returned in Week 10.

Fortunately, Tampa Bay has Pro Football Focus' second-best pass blocking grade. It will be strength on strength, and I like Mayfield's chances of getting enough time to find open targets.

The Cowboys currently hold PFF's ninth-worst coverage grade, and the Bucs have the fourth-highest implied total of the week. Our Brandon Gdula also gave this game the highest adjusted pace in Week 16.

FanDuel Research's DFS projections are giving Mayfield the third-most projected passing yards this week (257.6 yards).

Among Evans' line, a touchdown looks like the best bet. He's been red hot with 6.5 catches and 103.5 receiving yards per game on 8.5 targets per contest since returning from injury. This also includes three touchdowns during the four-game span.

Most of these have come on big plays outside of the red zone, and the Cowboys have the seventh-worst mark in yards allowed per deep target. Considering Evans' team-high 46.6% air yards share since Week 12, Tampa's stud receiver should shine. He holds the second-highest touchdown projection among receivers in Week 16 at 0.68 scores.

Don't forget the Buccaneers also give up 23.3 PPG (14th-most) and 5.6 yards per play (12th-most) while ranking as the 11th-worst adjusted defense. This includes sitting as the 12th-worst adjusted rush defense compared to the 16th-worst adjusted pass defense. With opponents logging 4.5 yards per rushing attempts against Tampa Bay (11th-most), another hot streak should be circled in Rico Dowdle.

Since becoming the clear starter in Week 12, Dowdle is averaging 21.0 carries and 119.5 rushing yards per game (5.7 yards per carry). The efficiency is there too, per a mind-boggling 1.40 RYOE/C.

We've seen Dowdle put up at least 4.0 yards after contact per carry in three straight games, and the Bucs have the ninth-worst PFF tackling grade. More broken tackles and another big day should be ahead. Plus, Sunday's 3.5-point spread suggests Dallas can avoid a negative game script.

Dowdle is projected 75.3 rushing yards, suggesting the over for his 74.5-yard prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.