3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Thursday 5/22/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Prop Picks

Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)

The sample on Jack Flaherty being a high-strikeout guy is large enough now where we should expect six strikeouts even in a poor matchup.

Flaherty finished last year's breakout with a 29.9% strikeout rate. In 9 starts back with the Detroit Tigers, that has held firm at 28.9%. He has hit the six-strikeout mark in five of nine starts, including three of four at home.

The baseline does take a hit tonight with the Cleveland Guardians as the opponent. Their active roster has a 20.4% strikeout rate against righties this year.

Even after accounting for that, I have Flaherty projected at 6.5 strikeouts. Pitchers in that range for me have gone over 5.5 strikeouts 58.7% of the time, so I'll happily take the plus money here.

Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-146)

If this were the 2024 version of Tanner Bibee, I wouldn't consider laying -146 on this under. We just haven't seen that version in a while, and I'm willing to fade him with the market where it's at until we do.

Bibee's up to nine starts this year, a large sample for metrics that stabilize quickly such as strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate. Yet, he's at 16.4% and 8.1%, respectively, there, big dips down from 26.3% and 12.2% last year.

This dip comes as Bibee has started to throw a sinker 15.9% of the time, and that pitch has just a 10.0% whiff rate on it, according to Baseball Savant. His two highest-whiff pitches last year were his cutter and his changeup, and he has reduced the usage on both in 2025.

Bibee could reverse course, but he hasn't done that yet. In his most recent start, his usage on those two pitches was in line with his season-long marks. Now, he has to face a Tigers team with a below-average strikeout rate on the road.

Even after baking in a boost for Bibee, I have him projected at 4.65 strikeouts. Pitchers in that range have gone under 5.5 at a rate of 67.3%, and the implied odds at -146 are 59.4%. Thus, I'm willing to lay a big number given Bibee's slow start.

Lance McCullers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)

Lance McCullers has six strikeouts in three starts this year.

He needs five tonight for this bet to lose.

That's hyper-reductive, but I'm surprised to see McCullers getting this much faith.

Part of the lack of strikeouts is due to effectiveness. He has an 8.74 expected ERA and has issued more walks than strikeouts. His swinging-strike rate is 6.8%.

He's also just not getting any leash yet. Including his four rehab starts, McCullers' max pitch count this year is 87. He was yanked after 4 innings and 83 pitches last time out even though he had allowed no earned runs.

When you combine that with his inefficiencies, I have McCullers projected to face just 20.2 batters tonight. In order to get 5 strikeouts there, he'd need a 24.8% strikeout rate, and I'm not close to that given the long layoff and the poor early returns.

Instead, I have McCullers projected for 4.24 strikeouts, low enough for me to show value in the under at -118.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.