3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 5/22/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers

Tigers Over 3.5 Runs (-140)

The Detroit Tigers are averaging 5.34 runs per game (fourth-highest) along with a .259 batting average (sixth-highest) and .330 wOBA (sixth-highest). Despite staying around its average with 5.4 runs per contest over the last 10, Detroit has only a 3.5-run total for tonight's meeting with the Cleveland Guardians.

As a team, Cleveland's run prevention hasn't been great by giving up 4.35 runs per game (12th-highest) and a .256 batting average (7th-highest). Thursday's starter, Tanner Bibee, isn't an outlier, either, with his 4.06 ERA, 4.68 SIERA and 4.68 xFIP. Bibee gave up 10 hits and five earned runs in his most recent outing.

Bibee's HR/9 allowed has also been dreadful at 1.94, and the Tigers have the fifth-highest SLG and eighth-highest home run percentage. The Guards' starter leans on a four-seam fastball (32.0%) and cutter (23.1%), and Detroit is in the top 11 of runs above average against both pitches.

Cleveland's bullpen has been quite mediocre, as well, surrendering the 15th-most runs on the season. Considering Detroit's averages and the nice matchup, over 3.5 runs is a solid bet.

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Braves -1.5 (+105)

Despite the Atlanta Braves holding a 9-17 record on the road, they are still viewed as a clear -154 moneyline favorite against the Washington Nationals.

The Nats have won five of the last six, but tonight's starting pitcher matchup could be an issue for Washington. Atlanta has dominated AJ Smith-Shawver's last five starts, winning his last five appearances by an average margin of +3.0 runs per game. This goes hand-in-hand with his current level of pitching, with the rookie boasting a 1.50 ERA during the stretch while posting single-game xFIPs of 3.67 or less in four of five outings.

Meanwhile, Washington is scheduled to start Trevor Williams, and they are 3-6 over Williams' nine starts. His marks for the season, including a 5.91 ERA and 4.17 SIERA, are concerning enough, but it's only gotten worse recently as he carries a 6.32 ERA over three starts in May.

Tonight's meeting could provide a lopsided result as the Braves' bullpen is clearly the better unit, as well. For example, Atlanta's relievers give up the seventh-fewest runs compared to the Nats ceding the fourth-most.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

Mariners Moneyline (-134)

Alongside confidence in the Braves to coast, the Seattle Mariners are also holding a nice matchup against the Houston Astros. Once again, much of this comes down to the starting pitchers.

Seattle has an experienced, familiar face on the rubber in George Kirby -- who is making his debut tonight. In 2024, Kirby made 33 starts while touting a 3.53 ERA and 3.56 SIERA.

Meanwhile, the Astros are featuring Lance McCullers, and he has appeared in only one full season since 2020. A right flexor tendon held McCullers out since 2022, and he's shown plenty of rust thus far with a dreadful 7.88 ERA, 6.01 SIERA, and 6.78 xFIP.

Seattle is already the better hitting team with the 11th-most runs, 10th-highest wOBA, and 12th-highest SLG -- compared to Houston ranking 22nd, 18th, and 23rd in the categories.

Boosted by a clear advantage on the mound, the Mariners have a good chance of staying hot after winning five of the previous six.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.