3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 5/21/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Kevin Gausman is a starting pitcher who is still capable of producing quality starts and racking up Ks in certain matchups, but he's giving up a lot of hard contact this season. Over his first 9 starts and 51.0 innings pitched in 2025, Gausman ranks in the 32nd percentile in xERA (4.36), 20th percentile in average exit velocity (90.8 MPH), 9th percentile in barrel rate (12.6%), and 30th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.1%).

In his most recent start against the Tampa Bay Rays at home, Gausman surrendered three home runs and four batted balls that had an exit velocity of 105-plus MPH. Gausman is also permitting a 1.73 HR/9 and 43.8% flyball rate versus lefties this season, which puts Jackson Merrill on my radar in the home run market for Wednesday's contests.

Despite Merrill producing just a .143 ISO against right-handed pitching so far, he has the eighth-best xSLG (.617) among batters with 50-plus plate appearances this season. Even though the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen has the second-best SIERA (3.05), they are vulnerable to dingers, logging the 10th-worst HR/9 (1.06), 2nd-worst barrel rate (11.0%), 5th-worst hard-hit rate (42.3%), and 8th-highest flyball rate (39.8%).

Trea Turner to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Trea Turner has undoubtedly gotten off to a slow start in the home run department to begin the 2025 campaign, but there's no better place than Coors Field to find your footing in the power category. Turner has been seeing the ball well in the first two games of the series versus the Colorado Rockies, going 5-for-10 with three extra-base hits during that span.

Just a season ago, Turner posted a .381 wOBA, 146 wRC+, and .224 ISO against southpaws, and he'll face an inexperienced lefty on Wednesday with Carson Palmquist set to make his second start in the majors. During his debut versus the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 16, Palmquist somehow escaped with zero homers given up despite permitting five batted balls of 100-plus MPH.

Palmquist combined to throw a sweeper and sinker on 89.9% of his pitches against right-handed batters in his first start, and Turner has registered a .200 ISO or better versus both those pitches when facing a left-handed hurler since the start of last season.

It remains to be seen how many pitches the Rockies trust Palmquist with in just his second start, so it's worth mentioning that Colorado's bullpen is recording the second-worst SIERA (4.31), fifth-worst HR/9 (1.23), and fifth-highest HR/FB rate (13.2%).

Tyler Soderstrom to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Among qualified pitchers, Jack Kochanowicz is tallying the 21st-worst HR/9 (2.03) to left-handed hitters, which isn't ideal against Tyler Soderstrom and the Athletics in a hitter-friendly environment at Sutter Health Park. Kochanowicz is also sitting in the 27th percentile in xERA (4.56), 6th percentile in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH), 4th percentile in strikeout rate (13.7%), and 11th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.4%).

While Soderstrom has cooled off a bit after hitting nine dingers in March and April, he's still crushing righties to the tune of a .371 wOBA, 144 wRC+, and .246 ISO this season. Soderstrom has a lot of red plastered on his Baseball Savant page, as well, ranking in the 88th percentile in xSLG (.538), 90th percentile in average exit velocity (92.8 MPH), 88th percentile in barrel rate (15.6%), and 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate (53.9%).

Over the last two weeks, Soderstrom has been hitting the ball hard enough to begin another power surge, accruing the 27th-best average exit velocity (93.9 MPH), 24th-best barrel rate (18.2%), and 2nd-best hard-hit rate (69.7%) during that span. The Los Angeles Angels also have arguably the worst bullpen in baseball as the Halos' relievers are tallying the worst HR/9 (1.78), worst barrel rate (11.4%), and worst hard-hit rate (45.9%).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.