3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 6/12/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Heliot Ramos to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Even though the Colorado Rockies used an opener ahead of Antonio Senzatela in his most recent outing, he's the projected starter for Thursday's contest -- at least for the time being -- which suggests he'll see the bulk of the work against the San Francisco Giants. With Senzatela giving up a .407 wOBA, 2.37 HR/9, and 37.8% flyball rate to righties (compared to a .432 wOBA, 0.85 HR/9, and 22.6% flyball rate to lefties), Heliot Ramos stands out in the home run market at Coors Field.

Along with Senzatela's woeful splits versus right-handed batters, he's simply been one of the worst starters in baseball, ranking in the 2nd percentile in xERA (7.11), 1st percentile in strikeout rate (11.0%), 25th percentile in barrel rate (10.2%), and 18th percentile in hard-hit rate (45.7%).

Meanwhile, Ramos is producing a .414 wOBA, 171 wRC+, and .311 ISO when facing a right-handed pitcher on the road this season.

While Ramos has yet to join the home run party in the first two games against the Rockies, three of his last four batted balls have clocked in at 95-plus MPH. Regardless of what Colorado elects to do with their pitchers on Thursday, their relievers have posted the third-worst HR/9 (1.49), third-worst barrel rate (9.8%), and ninth-worst hard-hit rate (41.0%) over the last 30 days, creating multiple avenues for Ramos to hit a dinger.

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Riley Greene was unable to deliver a homer for us yesterday in a favorable matchup versus Zach Eflin and the Baltimore Orioles, but he's in a fantastic spot again on Thursday against Dean Kremer.

Across his first 13 starts and 72.1 innings pitched in 2025, Kremer is sitting in the 33rd percentile in xERA (4.31), 15th percentile in strikeout rate (16.8%), 37th percentile in barrel rate (9.1%), and 40th percentile in groundball rate (40.5%). On top of that, Kremer is permitting a .390 wOBA, 1.69 HR/9, and 41.0% flyball rate to left-handed hitters (compared to a .285 wOBA, 0.77 HR/9, and 38.9% flyball rate to right-handed hitters).

As for Greene, he's crushing righties to the tune of a .385 wOBA, 152 wRC+, and .255 ISO. Those numbers climb to a .431 wOBA, 184 wRC+, and .309 ISO when he's squaring off against a right-handed hurler on the road.

The weather should aid Greene's hopes of hitting a long ball, as it will be 90-plus degrees with winds blowing out at Camden Yards, a venue that owns the No. 1 home run park factor for left-handed batters in 2025. Despite Greene going a bit cold in the home run category recently, he's still registering the third-best barrel rate (23.8%) across the last 30 days of action.

Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+460)

Davis Martin has surrendered multiple homers in back-to-back starts for the Chicago White Sox, and he's coughed up at least one dinger in four of his last five outings. In addition to Martin giving up a .343 wOBA, 1.31 HR/9, and 35.1% flyball rate versus righties, he's permitting a .358 wOBA, 1.56 HR/9, and 42.6% flyball rate when facing right-handed hitters on the road this year.

When factoring those splits from Martin, Isaac Paredes is a name to watch in the power department.

Aside from Paredes leading the Houston Astros in home runs (14) this season, he's logging a .366 wOBA, 139 wRC+, and .212 ISO versus right-handed hurlers (compared to a .290 wOBA, 86 wRC+, and .231 ISO versus left-handed hurlers). While Paredes isn't known for his loud contact, five of his last six batted balls that have been put in play have traveled at 99-plus MPH, and he went 3-for-5 with 2 doubles on Tuesday against the White Sox.

Once Martin exits Thursday's matchup, Paredes will then get a chance to tee off versus a Chicago bullpen that has the second-highest flyball rate (43.3%) and fourth-worst barrel rate (9.3%) in 2025.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.