3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 6/16/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+370)

Zach Eflin is set to make his 10th start of the season for the Baltimore Orioles, and the veteran righty is ranked in the 14th percentile in strikeout rate (16.9%), 98th percentile in walk rate (3.3%), and 40th percentile in barrel rate (8.9%). Besides Eflin throwing plenty of strikes and not showing much K upside, he's permitting a .349 wOBA, 2.30 HR/9, and 43.6% flyball rate to left-handed hitters (compared to a .287 wOBA, 0.83 HR/9, and 36.9% flyball rate to right-handed hitters).

Taking those splits into account, Brandon Lowe is in a premier spot to hit a dinger, especially with temperatures in the mid 80s and winds blowing out to right field at Steinbrenner Field (sixth in home run park factor this season) on Monday.

Against right-handed pitching this season, Lowe is logging a stellar .366 wOBA, 141 wRC+, and .214 ISO. The recent form has also been fantastic for Lowe, as the left-handed slugger has three multi-hit outings in his last four contests, and six of his last seven batted balls that have been put in play have clocked in at 96-plus MPH.

Additionally, Baltimore's bullpen has the seventh-worst HR/9 (1.23), eighth-worst barrel rate (9.0%), and third-highest flyball rate (43.3%) over the last 30 days.

Rowdy Tellez to Hit a Home Run (+600)

With Rowdy Tellez producing a .314 wOBA, 107 wRC+, .253 ISO, and 47.0% flyball rate versus right-handed pitchers (compared to a .115 wOBA, -32 wRC+, .000 ISO, and 28.6% flyball rate versus left-handed pitchers), we can only back him in the home run market when he faces a righty.

On Monday, Tellez will take on Lucas Giolito, who is currently in the 4th percentile in xERA (5.88), 7th percentile in average exit velocity (91.7 MPH), 20th percentile in strikeout rate (17.9%), and 12th percentile in hard-hit rate (46.9%).

Giolito is also giving up a 1.40 HR/9 and 42.1% flyball rate against left-handed batters, favoring Tellez in this matchup. In comparison, Giolitio is coughing up a 1.33 HR/9 and 32.9% flyball rate against right-handed batters, so the ball tends to be put in the air more often when he's facing a lefty.

Even though Tellez can sometimes be susceptible to strikeouts, Giolito is tallying the lowest strikeout rate of his career since 2018 and the lowest swinging-strike rate (8.1%) of his career since 2016.

While Tellez could be subbed out if the Boston Red Sox trot out a left-handed reliever, he's gotten four-plus at-bats in each of his last four appearances, and he's homered twice in that span.

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+340)

It's still slightly limited sample for Lance McCullers to begin the 2025 campaign, but the experienced starter is giving up plenty of hard contact, especially against right-handed batters. Across his first 7 starts and 29.1 innings pitched this season, McCullers is allowing a .416 wOBA, 1.98 HR/9, and 41.9% flyball rate to righties (compared to a .233 wOBA, 0.57 HR/9, and 32.4% flyball rate to lefties).

On top of that, McCullers is sitting in the 34th percentile in xERA (4.27), 13th percentile in average exit velocity (91.2 MPH), 21st percentile in barrel rate (10.4%), and 1st percentile in hard-hit rate (54.5%). Aside from Brent Rooker getting to play at Sutter Health Park (seventh in home run park factor this season) with winds blowing out to left field on Monday, McCullers' reverse splits favor Rooker in this contest.

Since the start of last season, Rooker is registering a .346 ISO against McCulllers' primary pitch versus right-handed hitters (slider). Over the last seven days, Houston's relievers are also notching the third-worst barrel rate (11.4%), worst hard-hit rate (48.8%), and seventh-highest flyball rate (41.5%).

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.