3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 6/18/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

Phillies -1.5 (-102)

The Miami Marlins snapped the Philadelphia Phillies' five-game win streak yesterday, but the Phillies should be able to get revenge tonight.

Left-hander Ranger Suarez will toe the rubber for Philadelphia, and he's put up fantastic numbers over eight starts. While Suarez is roughly average in strikeout rate (21.7%), he's in the 98th percentile for both barrel rate (2.1%) and hard-hit rate (28.8%) while generating a 54.5% ground-ball rate. Throw in an excellent 5.9% walk rate, and the result is a 2.43 xERA.

Since getting shelled in his 2025 debut at the start of May, Suarez has allowed six earned runs total across his last seven starts, which includes four outings where he allowed no runs and logged six-plus innings. Miami's active roster has a middling 94 wRC+ and .122 ISO versus LHP, so Suarez should be able to keep up his streak of strong performances.

The Marlins will have a far less trustworthy starter on the mound. Right-hander Adam Mazur is getting called up from Triple-A, and when we saw him in the big leagues last year, he posted a rough 5.64 xERA and 6.05 SIERA over eight starts with a 13.9% K rate and 13.3% BB rate. In Triple-A this season, he's produced a decent 3.85 xFIP, but a meh 22.2% K rate suggests that he'll continue to be a low-strikeout pitcher at the major league level.

Even without Bryce Harper, the Phillies' active roster has solid marks against righties with a 105 wRC+ and 19.9% strikeout rate, so Mazur might not last very long in his return to the bigs. With a significant starting pitching advantage, the Phillies ought to be able to cover this run line and get back to their winning ways.

Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers

Under 8.0 Runs (-108)

Both the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers have been unproductive at the plate versus left-handed pitching, so a lefty-lefty duel between Kris Bubic and Patrick Corbin should result in a low-scoring contest. Among active rosters, the Royals are 27th in wRC+ (73) and 30th in ISO against LHP while the Rangers are 26th (77) and 22nd (.130). Texas also has the third-worst strikeout rate (26.1%) when facing southpaws.

Corbin might seem like an odd fit for an under, but the former punching bag actually comes in with a 3.66 ERA and 4.02 xERA. Above-average marks in hard-hit rate (77th percentile), average exit velocity (66th percentile), and chase rate (73rd percentile) are also positives. He's also been rather consistent, allowing 1 to 3 earned runs in all 12 starts, and only 2 of those outings didn't go at least 5 innings.

While it's easy to remain skeptical of Corbin keeping all this up, a matchup against the low-powered Royals should alleviate some concerns.

On the other side, Kansas City's Bubic has been crushing it with a 2.99 xERA and 25.9% strikeout rate, and he's in the 70th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. He's coming off a tough outing against the New York Yankees -- no shame in that -- but had previously allowed just three earned runs total over his last six starts, four of which went seven innings.

Both offenses are in the bottom five in runs per game, and their averages would combine for just 6.97 runs. Given the pitching matchups, they're unlikely to exceed that baseline tonight.

Houston Astros at Athletics

Astros -1.5 (-105)

This matchup is tied for the slate's highest total (9.5) due to temperatures in the 90s and Sutter Health Park playing like a hitter-friendly venue this season. However, Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez should be better equipped to handle these conditions compared to A's right-hander Luis Severino.

Over 14 starts, Valdez has produced a 3.09 SIERA, 26.7% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate, and 58.1% ground-ball rate. While a higher hard-hit rate has bumped his xERA to 3.60, that elite ground-ball rate has led to him allowing just a 23.6% fly-ball rate and 0.60 HR/9. In other words, Valdez has the proper arsenal to keep the ball in the park despite the high temperatures.

The Athletics' active roster has modest marks versus LHP, too, including a 94 wRC+, .148 ISO, and 24.3% strikeout rate.

On the other hand, Severino could be more susceptible to the long ball. While he's also suppressed dingers (0.60 HR/9) behind a 4.7% barrel rate, it's fair to wonder whether this is sustainable. Severino doesn't get a high rate of Ks (15.6%) or grounders (41.1%), and he's still giving up hard hits (42.6%). His 6.1% HR/FB rate is less than half career average (13.3%), which is another red flag.

The Astros lack a ton of power, but they still rate out as above average against righties (104 wRC+) and are a tough club to strike out (19.9% K rate). They shouldn't have much trouble making contact against Severino.

Add in that Houston's active bullpen ranks first in strikeout rate (29.5%) and second in SIERA (2.97), and a decided pitching edge should lead to an Astros victory by 2+ runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.