3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 5/7/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

Reds Moneyline (-102)

Hunter Greene has looked like a bonafide ace for the Cincinnati Reds to begin the season, ranking in the 89th percentile in xERA (2.59), 95th percentile in xBA (.187), 94th percentile in strikeout rate (33.3%), and 87th percentile in walk rate (4.8%). Greene has been credited with a win in four of his last five starts, and the Reds have the edge on the mound with Grant Holmes set to start for the Atlanta Braves.

Even with Holmes racking up nine Ks and giving up only two earned runs versus the Los Angeles Dodgers in his most recent start, the Braves were unable to come away with a victory in that contest. Holmes is also in the 30th percentile in xERA (4.51), 10th percentile in walk rate (13.6%), and 17th percentile in barrel rate (11.8%), so he certainly has some weaknesses that Cincy's lineup can take advantage of.

Despite the Reds being on a four-game losing streak, these are solid odds for them to secure a win with their best starting pitcher on the bump. While Atlanta has more firepower at the plate than Cincinnati, they are still producing the 15th-worst wRC+ (98) and 13th-highest strikeout rate (22.6%) to begin the 2025 campaign.

Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins

First 5 Innings Result: Twins (-108)

It's safe to say it's been a truly forgettable start to the year for veteran Charlie Morton, who is sitting in seventh percentile in xERA (6.07), seventh percentile in walk rate (14.6%), and seventh percentile in hard-hit rate (49.0%). Among pitchers with 20-plus innings under their belt, Morton is posting the ninth-worst SIERA (5.25), fifth-worst xFIP (5.43), worst WHIP (2.20), and fourth-worst HR/9 (2.28).

Given Morton's woes on the mound, I'll back the Minnesota Twins to have the lead after five innings in Wednesday's matchup versus the Baltimore Orioles. During Tuesday's clash between Baltimore and Minnesota, the Twins jumped out to a 5-1 lead after the fifth inning thanks to a five-run third inning for Minnesota.

While Simeon Woods Richardson hasn't been lights out for the Twins this season, the Orioles are struggling to generate offensive production away from Camden Yards, registering the third-worst wOBA (.273), third-worst wRC+ (74), sixth-worst ISO (.107), and ninth-highest strikeout rate (24.4%) in road games. On the other hand, Minnesota is recording the 14th-best wOBA (.327), 13th-best wRC+ (113), and 3rd-best BABIP (.321) when playing at home.

Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels

Over 8.5 Runs (-115)

In a matchup that features Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi on the mound, I'll be fading both starters and taking the over in Wednesday's contest between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels. Beginning with Berrios, the experienced righty is residing in the 34th percentile in xERA (4.45), 41st percentile in xBA (.255), and 24th percentile in barrel rate (10.9%).

Berrios has also given up multiple earned runs in five of his seven starts this season, and the Angels are capable of doing damage with the sixth-best ISO (.177) against right-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, Kikuchi hasn't been any better, ranking in the 23rd percentile in xERA (4.98), 37th percentile in xBA (.259), 20th percentile in walk rate (11.7%), and 23rd percentile in barrel rate (11.0%).

Aside from the Blue Jays quietly sporting the 9-best wOBA (.322), 8th-best wRC+ (110), and 10th-best ISO (.145) against southpaws, both of these teams feature shaky bullpen units. Los Angeles' bullpen is notching the 10th-worst SIERA (3.93) and worst HR/9 (1.94), while Toronto's bullpen is tallying the eighth-worst HR/9 (1.15) and worst barrel rate (12.2%).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.