3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 6/27/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Athletics at New York Yankees

Athletics Over 3.5 Runs (+102)

Over the last five games, the Athletics have surpassed three runs in only one game. This causes clear concern for the over, but tonight's matchup with the New York Yankees' Will Warren is actually a favorable matchup.

Warren is carrying a 4.66 ERA, 3.54 xERA, 3.37 SIERA, and 3.10 xFIP. This suggests positive regression, but the opposite can be said for his matchups against sluggers.

Warren is ceding only 0.72 home runs per nine innings and a 9.2% home run-to-fly ball percentage. While it was a small sample size of six appearances in the majors last season, he posted 1.99 HR/9 and a 17.2% HR/FB allowed. His 1.56 HR/9 over 23 starts in Triple-A a season ago is especially eye-opening. Plus, Warren is currently in the 46th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 7th percentile of hard-hit rate ceded.

The Athletics are eighth in SLG and ninth in isolated power and home run rate. Furthermore, Warren's top two pitches are his four-seam fastball (39.1%) and sweeper (22.7%), and the A's total the seventh-most runs above average against four seamers and the fourth-highest mark when facing sweepers.

Warren has surrendered at least three earned runs in three of his last five starts. Early success against the Yankees' starter should lead to the over for the A's.

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

Over 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-115)

Dylan Cease in the 2024 season drew immediate attention to under lines, but his numbers have jumped in 2025. He holds a 4.43 ERA, but this could fall in the near future considering his 3.47 xERA and 3.35 SIERA. However, I don't expect that success to begin tonight.

The San Diego Padres' starter has given up three earned runs in five of last seven starts, turning our attention to tonight's first five inning run total. Cease heavily leans on striking out opponents by ranking in the 86th percentile of K rate. Initially, this seems like a great matchup with the Cincinnati Reds sporting the seventh-highest K%.

However, Cincy has totaled seven or fewer strikeouts in two of the last three -- which is well below its season average of 8.7 per game. Additionally, the Reds have the 2nd-lowest chase rate and 11th-lowest whiff percentage, suggesting the Ks should eventually come down. With Cease in the 85th and 94th percentiles of chase and whiff rates, he could have less success than usual against Cincy.

Furthermore, Cease is in the 26th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 44th percentile of hard-hit percentage ceded. Cincinnati ranks 12th in SLG and isolated power. Cease will likely give up more runs in the early going.

Rounding out this pick, the Redlegs' starter Nick Martinez has been struggling with a 4.40 ERA, 4.34 SIERA, and 4.39 xFIP. He carries a dreadful 8.35 ERA over his last four starts, as well.

Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros

Over 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-114)

More vulnerable starters will be on the mound between the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros, but each team carries an excellent bullpen. Both squads are among the top five for the lowest bullpen ERAs, and the Astros boast the lowest SIERA. With that said, my focus is on the first five innings once again.

Starting with the Astros' Brandon Walter, he's posted solid numbers through his first four starts in the big leagues. He has a 3.80 ERA paired with an eye-popping 2.67 SIERA and 2.52 xFIP. However, the Cubs will be the best batting order he's seen yet.

Chicago hits well against southpaws, touting the 9th-most runs and 11th-highest batting average in the split. Walter has yet to see a batting order with numbers this high against lefties. Furthermore, the Cubs are in the top five of runs above average against three of Walter's four most-used pitches (cutter, sweeper, and sinker). Walter is on pace to be in the bottom 25% of hard-hit rate allowed, and Chicago owns the fourth-highest SLG, isolated power, and home run rate.

Houston succeeds against right-handed hurlers with the 12th-most runs and 9th-highest batting average. The Cubs' starter Cade Horton already has a 4.11 SIERA and 4.16 xFIP while giving up at least three earned runs in two of his last three outings. He's in the 17th percentile of barrel rate and 28th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed, and the 'Stros have the 15th-highest SLG. This matchup is clearly elevating a batting order that has the 10th-fewest runs on the season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.