3 Best Bets to Win the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby

Key takeaways:

• Gosger has back-to-back runner-up finishes behind Journalism and the right stalking style to capitalize on a hot pace at the Pennsylvania Derby.
• Baeza brings consistency and class from top-level races, with versatile horse racing tactics that make him a deserving favorite.
• David of Athens is lightly raced with upside, has shown he can win from on or off the pace, and gets Tyler Gaffalione’s loyalty.

The flagship event at Parx Racing, and the last major destination for sophomore dirt routers to run for a seven-figure purse against their own age group, is the Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday, September 20. The race drew a field of 10, including two horses who placed in the three-year-old classics, Baeza and Gosger.

The history of the Pennsylvania Derby goes back to 1979, with horses like Broad Brush, Summer Squall, and Harlan’s Holiday winning some of those early editions. However, the importance of the race has intensified since the early 2010s. Winners like Will Take Charge, Bayern, Frosted, West Coast, Hot Rod Charlie, and Seize the Grey have cemented their place on the horse racing calendar, and the race has held top-level designation since the 2017 edition.

The 2025 edition will be a thrilling betting race. Near the top of the market will be horses who competed in Triple Crown races and are coming out from behind the shadows of Sovereignty and Journalism: top contenders like Baeza, Gosger, and Goal Oriented. However, several up-and-comers are improving and will be ready to make an impact at the top level.

The Pennsylvania Derby is the 14th of 15 races on the blockbuster card at Parx Racing on Saturday. It is one of two Grade 1 races, along with the Cotillion Stakes, for three-year-old fillies. Beyond the top-level races, there are five more stakes on the card, including two graded stakes races, the Gallant Bob (G2) for sophomore sprinters and the Greenwood Cup (G3) for older long-distance dirt horses. First post time for the card is at 11:05 a.m. EDT, and post time for the Pennsylvania Derby is scheduled for 6 p.m. EDT.

These are the three best bets for the Pennsylvania Derby:

1. Gosger (2025 Pennsylvania Derby morning-line odds: 4-1)

Gosger is likely to be the best price among the three horses with proven Grade 1 form who are finally getting a chance to prove themselves away from Sovereignty and Journalism. Though he is still lightly enough raced to improve, with just five starts behind him, he has already shown he belongs at this level. He won his graded-stakes debut in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland in April, and amassed second-place finishes behind Journalism in each of his last two outings, beaten only half a length each time. It took a heroic rally for Journalism to catch Gosger in the Preakness, and then he only grudgingly let Journalism past in the Haskell as well. Luis Saez rode the Brendan Walsh trainee in both of those starts, and he returns to the saddle this time.

The pace scenario is interesting in the Pennsylvania Derby: there is a plethora of early pace in the race, but the dirt at Parx Racing tends to play well for horses who can be forward. Mo Plex, Magnitude, and Altobelli have to go; Goal Oriented, So Sandy, David of Athens, and Big Truzz have also shown speed at turns. Thus, though setting the pace still seems like a recipe for doing too much dirty work to hold to the wire, a horse who can track in close range behind that pace without getting sucked in will be primed to get the advantageous trip. That’s Gosger: he can get a clean trip from this near-outside stall, lie in wait a couple of lengths behind lively fractions, and have plenty in the tank to mow them down when it counts.

2. Baeza (2025 Pennsylvania Derby morning-line odds: 2-1)

Baeza is another horse who can benefit from the likely pace scenario. He has speed when he needs it, as he showed in the maiden ranks in California, and even when pretty close to a modest pace in his last race, the Jim Dandy (G2). But, in general, he sits somewhere off the pace, and he has never been at the lead at either of the first two fractions, whether the pace has been softer or torrid. That suggests the versatility of a class horse.

Given the fact that you don’t want to be too far away at Parx, it’s also a positive that Hector Berrios takes the call. He was further off the pace in his starts with Flavien Prat, but in his California races and the Jim Dandy, Berrios was able to keep him in close enough range to suggest that, even over a track like Parx, he won’t be left with too much to do in the end.

He is also the kind of horse who can take his race with him, another concern for a horse who will be the favorite. Though he has only won once, the only time he missed the board was when debuting over the lawn, and he has run excellent efforts at three different tracks: Santa Anita, Churchill Downs, and Saratoga. He has run races at all those tracks with speed figures that would make him a marquee contender in this race, and he is a justified favorite.

3. David of Athens (2025 Pennsylvania Derby morning-line odds: 12-1)

Among the up-and-comers in the Pennsylvania Derby, David of Athens has the most upside. Gosger’s stablemate in the Brendan Walsh barn, he actually started his career before Gosger, breaking his maiden at first asking in his sprint debut at Keeneland. However, he needed some time off after that, and did not return until an allowance sprint in June. Though he finished only sixth, he was beaten just 2 ¼ lengths for all the marbles after a slow break, meaning it was still a good effort. On July 20, he was much faster away, led at every call, and won a first-level allowance mile at Ellis.

David of Athens did wire the field in that allowance win last out, but he is not one-way speed—he rallied from midfield in that maiden victory and also passed horses after that slow break two back. Especially with so much speed, there is a good chance David of Athens does not make the lead even if he wants it, and he has shown he does not need it. And, jockey Tyler Gaffalione has experience riding David of Athens both ways—he was in the saddle for both his maiden score and his allowance win. It is also a plus that Gaffalione shows up here—he was also the last-out rider of blowout Ellis Park Derby winner Big Truzz, and yet he sticks with the less experienced David of Athens.

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