2025 Arlington Million Stakes Preview at Colonial Downs

Key Takeaways:

• Integration is the 8-5 favorite and the most accomplished turf horse in the field, especially over rain-affected Colonial Downs turf.
• Mystik Dan, the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, makes his turf debut and could be dangerous with the right setup and trip.
• Cairo, a Group 1-placed Euro, brings strong class lines but hasn’t won in over two years—better suited for exotics.
• With a mix of proven turf contenders and question marks, this year's Arlington Million shapes up as a competitive but below-average Grade 1.

The flagship day of the Colonial Downs summer meet happens Saturday, August 9, and the flagship race of that day is the Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes, a 1 ¼-mile turf test for three-year-olds and up. The race drew a field of eight, including Group 1-placed European raider Cairo, last year’s Arlington Million runner-up Integration, and 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, who tries grass for the first time. The Arlington Million is one of three graded stakes on the card, which also includes the Beverly D. (G2) and the Secretariat (G2).

The race, inaugurated in 1981 at Arlington Park in Illinois as the Arlington Million Invitational Stakes, was the first Thoroughbred race with a million-dollar purse. Long a fixture of the American turf season and the linchpin of the Arlington International Festival of Racing, the race’s history is a rocky one, but it has continued to survive.

The race was run at Woodbine in 1988 due to track construction, and wasn’t run at all in 1998 or 1999 during a two-year shutdown at Arlington. It wasn’t run in 2020 due to the COVID pandemic, and then was run as the $600,000 Mr. D. Stakes in 2021, the final year that Arlington International Racecourse was open. After Arlington was shuttered, the race spent a year at Churchill Downs before being moved to its current home of Colonial Downs. 2025 marks its third year in Virginia.

Even amid that backdrop, the list of notable winners marks it as one of the most important turf races in American history. The great John Henry won the first edition of the race, held in 1981, and came back to win in 1984. Manila, the 1986 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, went on to win the Arlington Million the next year. Bricks and Mortar, whose undefeated 2019 campaign included victories in the Arlington Million and the Breeders’ Cup Turf, earned Horse of the Year honors.

2025 Arlington Million Information

• Race Date: Saturday, August 9
• Track: Colonial Downs
• Post Time: 5:54 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time
• Distance: 1 ¼ miles on the turf
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds and up
• Where to Watch: FanDuel Racing
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Arlington Million Draw and Odds

This is the field for the 2025 Arlington Million, including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds for each runner.

Arlington Million Prep Race Results

All eight entrants in the Arlington Million come out of different races. Six come out of stakes races, with two others out of allowance races. Though all ran in the superfecta last out, none won their final preps.

Two come out of turf races at the top level; though neither won, both ran close in-the-money efforts. Integration finished second by a head in the Manhattan (G1) on June 8 at Saratoga; he just missed behind Deterministic, who has already franked the form by winning the Fourstardave (G1) next out. Cairo stretches out after finishing third in the one-mile Queen Anne (G1) at Royal Ascot on June 17, 1 ¾ lengths behind Docklands.

Mystik Dan also comes out of a Grade 1 race, but it was on dirt. He was last seen finishing fourth behind Mindframe in the Stephen Foster (G1), a 1 ⅛-mile dirt race at Churchill Downs on June 28.

Two others come out of graded turf races. Grand Sonata chased for second, 1 ½ lengths behind Redistricting in the United Nations (G2) on July 19 at Monmouth Park. Fort Washington chased for fourth, 1 ¾ lengths behind Brilliant Berti, in the Wise Dan (G2) at Churchill Downs on June 28.

The other three runners come out of ungraded races. Runaway Storm set the pace in the 1 1/16-mile Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial at Horseshoe Indianapolis on July 5, but fell 1 ¼ lengths short of Encino in the end. Vesting, a first-level allowance winner two back, finished third, beaten 1 ½ lengths in a second-level turf allowance going 1 ⅜ miles at Saratoga on July 23. Time Song set the pace before settling for second, beaten a length, in a first-level turf allowance going 1 ⅜ miles at Del Mar on July 20.

Arlington Million Contenders

This is a closer look at the horses in the 2025 Arlington Million, from the rail out.

1. Mystik Dan: Trainer Kenny McPeek has never been shy to run a good horse, and never been shy to take a chance, either. He takes a high-profile chance with Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, who worked well over the grass at Saratoga on August 1—and now tries a turf race for the first time in a Grade 1. The 1 ¼-mile distance is obviously within his ability, and he isn’t shy about hugging the rail and rallying from there. The drawback is that he may be overbet because of name recognition—but the post and the pace setup do work in his favor, and if he can run back to his recent dirt races on grass? This isn’t the toughest Grade 1 by any stretch of the imagination, and he is fast enough to actually win this.
2. Time Song: The good news is, he comes into this race in the best form of his career so far. The bad news is, that still leaves him with a lot to find. His only graded-stakes try came in the 1 ¾-mile San Juan Capistrano (G3), where he finished second in a war of attrition. This isn’t the toughest Grade 1 in the world, but the top contenders are much tougher than what he was seeing in either that marginal Grade 3 or that first-level allowance in which he was beaten last out. Expect him to be part of the pace, but to find the late going far too tough.
3. Vesting: This Mike Maker trainee makes his graded-stakes debut, and his second start in graded-stakes company. Previously in the barn of Chad Brown, he sold at auction to his current owner, Three Diamonds Farm, in the spring, and has made two starts for Maker so far. He won a first-level allowance two back, and flattened out in a 1 ⅜-mile second-level race last out. He can hit the board from pretty much anywhere in the pack, but his only two wins have come on the front end, making a win tough to ask, especially with Time Storm inside him and Runaway Storm outside. The 1 ¼-mile trip may also be on the short side for him.
4. Runaway Storm: Among the speed horses, he is best drawn—outside of Time Song and Vesting, the others who have a lot of pace. He can actually pull off a win if he doesn’t make the top—that’s what he did after staring slowly in the Bryan Station (G3) last fall at Keeneland. But, he typically does his best work from the front, and should show a lot of pace, especially at this distance, the longest he has ever tried. The distance is a major concern, though—his breeding skews middle distance at the longest, and even at 1 ⅛ miles against stakes company last year, he couldn’t see it out.
5. Cairo: On class, this horse deserves a long look—he comes out of a credible third in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, and he very much fits the profile of a horse who falls just short in Europe and may benefit from a visit to the United States. However, the concern on the win end is that he hasn’t won a race at all in over two years. Usually, these horses looking for a class break have at least been able to win when stepping out of the tougher company in Europe, but he couldn’t get the job done in early-season stakes at Meydan, or even lower-level races in Great Britain or Ireland. His better races get him a piece of this, of course – but second-itis is second-itis anywhere in the world, and he makes the most sense to run on for a piece underneath.
6. Fort Washington: One of two for Shug McGaughey, Fort Washington chased on for fourth in the 1 1/16-mile Wise Dan last out. He has yet to try 1 ¼ miles yet—but given his pedigree, and some solid form going 1 ⅛ miles, this is a worthwhile distance to try. He should be able to get a decent run, rallying from midpack into a pace that should be solid—he hasn’t gotten much pace in his last few, so this should be his best setup since he won the Canadian Turf back in March. It’s also a positive that he won at Pimlico over less-than-firm ground two back; there is a chance of rain on Million Day and even the days before, meaning a horse who can handle some cut in the ground will have an advantage.
7. Grand Sonata: He hated the slop in the Belmont Gold Cup two back, but was back on song when he returned to the grass at Monmouth Park last out, tracking the pace and staying on for second in the United Nations last out. The 1 ¼-mile distance is the question for Grand Sonata, as he usually goes longer than this, and has been off the board in two tries over the trip. But, he should benefit well from the speed in front of him, and he wouldn’t be a huge surprise for a piece underneath if he can build on his last race, or even run back to it.
8. Integration: He has yet to break through at the Grade 1 level, and it feels like he’s been the “next big thing” in the turf division for about two years now. That pattern of not closing the deal at the top level raises questions at the short price, but this field is really only a marginal Grade 1, something that weighs in Integration’s favor. Even though he hasn’t won since the Red Smith (G2) last fall at Aqueduct, he has been second in three of four starts this year, and has been facing proper Grade 1 horses. That makes him the class of this field. The wet forecast also bodes well for him—he ran off the screen over soft Colonial Downs turf when he won the Million Preview at Colonial last year. Though this is a deeper field, that race came back fast and shows that he can thrive over rain-affected ground.

Arlington Million Stakes FAQ

Q: When and where is the Arlington Million?

A: The Arlington Million will be run Saturday, August 9, at Colonial Downs in New Kent, Virginia. The race is the 11th on the 12-race card, with post time scheduled for 5:54 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Arlington Million?

A: Chad Brown leads all trainers with four wins, most recently in 2019 with Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar. Brown does not have a horse in the field in 2025. All the trainers with horses entered in 2025 seek their first win in the race.

Q: Who is the favorite for the Arlington Million?

A: The 8-5 morning-line favorite is Integration, one of two entrants for Shug McGaughey. Though he often falls just short at the top level, he was beaten only a head last out by a horse who has already come back to win another Grade 1, and he also has three wins in four starts at Colonial. He is also co-owned by syndicates West Point Thoroughbreds and Woodford Racing; syndicate members and their friends often put money on their horses. This means he will probably hold, as the favorite.

Q: Who is the best Arlington Million jockey?

A: Eight jockeys have won the Arlington Million twice: Laffit Pincay, Jr., Cash Asmussen, Jose Santos, Gary Stevens, Jerry Bailey, Ramon Dominguez, Irad Ortiz, Jr., and Florent Geroux. Ortiz and Geroux are still active, but neither has a call this year. The only jockey riding in 2025 who has won before is Tyler Gaffalione. He won with Brendan Walsh trainee Santin in 2022, and rides Integration for Shug McGaughey this year.

Q: Who won the Arlington Million in 2024?

A: Nations Pride won the 2024 edition for trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick. Neither returns to the fray in 2025.

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