2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Packers at Lions on Thursday Night Football

Despite the Detroit Lions sitting at 11-1, the NFC North standings are as tight as ever with the Minnesota Vikings at 10-2 and Green Bay Packers at 9-3. Another must-see NFC North clash is on the schedule in Week 14, but this time its a primetime matchup on Thursday night.

The Packers have a chance to climb within one game of the Lions in divisional standings. The two met in Week 9, which resulted in a 24-14 win for Detroit. The Lions are on a 10-game winning streak, but they're battling a slew of injuries on defense. Green Bay is getting healthy at the right time and is on a three-game winning streak while going 7-1 over the previous eight.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for Thursday night's NFC North clash.

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Packers at Lions Betting Picks

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Under 51.5 Points (-110)

In Week 9, we saw the under hit with a 49.0-point total between these two teams. We shouldn't ignore Thursday's matchup being played indoors at Ford Field, which is always a positive scoring environment. However, the under is still looking to be the best bet.

numberFire's NFL projections have the total reaching 46.3 points while MasseyRatings is predicting a 51-point total. Avoiding a close call would be nice, but either way, the under hits in both projections.

Much of this has to do with how the pace of this game could play out. Green Bay touts the fourth-highest rush-play rate in the NFL, and I don't expect that to change with Lions defensive linemen D.J. Reader (shoulder), Joshua Paschal (knee), and Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring) all questionable. Adding insult to injury, linebackers Alex Anzalone (forearm) and Malcolm Rodriguez (knee) are on injured reserve. Reader, Paschal, and Onwuzurike have all yet to practice this week, as of Wednesday afternoon. Backup rookie defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo (knee) just suffered a season-ending injury, as well.

Running in between the tackles seems like a no-brainer against Detroit's beat-up defense. The Packers will likely do just that, especially when it's in line with their season-long tendencies.

As most of us know, the Lions also love to run the rock, and they boast the third-highest rush-play rate. We could get into a situation where the clock is constantly running as both squads are among the top seven teams for the most seconds per play. Each defense is also in the top six of takeaways per game, which could erase some successful drives in this contest.

Packers +3.5 (-118)

We've established this could be a low-scoring game, but what does this mean for the potential victor? When looking at the spread, the Packers are shaping up to be a great bet. Not only do they have the key number of 3.5 as 'dogs, they're also getting healthy at the right time.

Detroit has a long list of injuries on defense. Initially, it seems Green Bay could be in the same boat with a load of questionable players on its depth chart. However, each starter was a limited participant at practice on Tuesday. The only exception is linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring) as he's yet to practice this week.

With that said, the Packers' run game is still in good shape; Josh Jacobs (calf), center Josh Myers (pectoral) and tackles Elgton Jenkins (knee) and Rasheed Walker (knee) all have some limited practices under their belts this week.

Prior to Week 14's bout against the Miami Dolphins, Jacobs was on an absolute tear by totaling 96.0 rushing yards per game over five games. However, this dipped to 83.8 rushing yards per contest over the last six thanks to only 43 yards and 2.3 yards per rushing attempt against the Dolphins. Still, Jacobs sports an eye-catching 1.2 rushing yards over expectation per carry since Week 7 (per NFL Next Gen Stats).

Considering the Lions' injuries in the front seven and Detroit holding the 12th-best schedule-adjusted rush defense compared to the best adjusted pass defense, the Pack should thrive on the ground. The Green and Gold will likely keep pounding the rock, especially with Detroit's top cornerback, Carlton Davis (knee), likely returning from injury.

Underwhelming numbers from the Lions' offense in the head-to-head matchup from Week 9 kind of went unnoticed in the win. The Lions posted only 261 yards of offense, 4.7 yards per play, and 3.9 yards per rushing attempt. Green Bay has the 9th-best adjusted defense, 12th-best adjusted pass defense, and 11th-best adjusted rush defense. I like the Packers' chances of holding this elite Lions offense in check once again.

Perhaps the biggest concern for this pick is Jordan Love's turnover woes. He has 11 interceptions on the season and is facing a defense that has a nose for the ball. Fortunately, Love has avoided turnovers in back-to-back games (he had at least one turnover in each of his previous eight). The Packers' starting signal-caller even boasts 0.31 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) over his past two appearances. If Love continues playing at this level, Green Bay has a great chance to pull off the upset, and its +1400 odds to win the Super Bowl could begin to drop.

Ultimately, I see this game shaking out similar to what MasseyRatings is projecting -- a 27-24 final in favor of the Lions. The Packers could come up short on the road, but they should have more than enough to cover against an injury-riddled defense.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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