WM Phoenix Open: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats

The WM Phoenix Open is an event unlike any other on the PGA Tour calendar given its raucous environment, and Scottie Scheffler will look to win his third straight title at TPC Scottsdale.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium) Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 71
• Distance: 7,261 yards (around 60 yards shorter than the average par 71)
• Average Fairway Width: 31.5 yards (37th of 86 courses)
• Average Green Size: 7,069 square feet (large)
• Green Type: Poa overseed
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores: -19, -16, -19, -17, -17

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium) Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Driving Distance
• Birdie or Better Rate

Over the past 10 years, the winning score at TPC Scottsdale has ranged from -14 to -19, and we tend to see an emphasis on overall ball-striking.

Scheffler has gone back-to-back at this course. Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama also have two wins in that span. So, the ball-striking angle tracks.

Distance helps, and a noticeable amount of approach shots come from 150 to 200 yards, so the distance correlation checks out. However, distance isn't a true must.

Best Golfers at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium) Course

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

WM Phoenix Open Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

WM Phoenix Open Betting Picks to Target

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on my win simulation model and/or my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Byeong Hun An

To Win (+2800)

With Scheffler soaking up a ton of win equity at the top, it's looking more like a mid-range week in terms of true value. That includes Byeong Hun An at +2800 to win outright.

An is long off the tee (2nd in the field over the past 50 rounds) and is historically a good iron player even though those numbers are just okay right now.

He has four top-25 finishes in five starts at TPC Scottsdale, and his putting is supported by above-average splits from within 10 feet this season.

Sungjae Im

To Win (+3300)

Im's irons are cooling off right now, and that is something that should rebound eventually based on his long-term baseline.

What is consistently there is the driver: he's 28th in strokes gained: off the tee over the past 50 rounds and 17th over the past 20 rounds.

Im's a top-30 putter on Tour this year from within 10 feet, and the +3300 number is longer than it should be because of the missed cut and T66 in his past two starts.

He's also one of the best course fits at TPC Scottsdale, according to datagolf.

Adam Hadwin

To Win (+5000)

To Finish Top 10 (+400)

Another good course fit is Adam Hadwin, who has a solid all-around game but who always stands out on the greens. Hadwin's good start to the year with the putter is supported by top-15 putting from within 10 feet.

He has played TPC Scottsdale often (nine times) with three top-20s to show for it and only one missed cut back in his debut.

The irons are trending up for Hadwin, which makes for a nice combination with his putting baseline at this event.

Harris English

To Finish Top 10 (+800)

To Finish Top 20 (+330)

English cooled off after two top-15 finishes to start January with a T64 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a 76th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Notably, his two top-15s came with great putting, and his splits from 5 to 15 feet are solid, though the larger sample from within 10 feet specifically could suggest he's overperforming.

Still, as far as value goes, there looks to be some with his finishing positions.

English has four top-20 finishes in 11 starts at TPC Scottsdale, and his form is holding steady after returning from injury.

Aaron Rai

To Finish Top 20 (+360)

Rai is another good course fit here, according to datagolf, though he has played here just once. He was T42 last year while scrambling well. Though that's not exactly what you want to see, Rai's top-20 odds are long enough at +360.

Long-term, Rai is a top-20 ball-striker in this field (over the past 50 rounds), and he's a top-12 tee-to-green golfer over the past calendar year.

He'll need to putt better (110th in that split), yet he is at least near the PGA average in putting from inside 10 feet this year.

Emiliano Grillo

Top South American (+110)

Grillo is matched up against Jhonattan Vegas, Camilo Villegas, and Nicolas Echavarria in this group to be top South American.

Over the past 50 rounds, Grillo is averaging +0.84 true strokes gained per round. Nobody else in the group is better than a -0.32, according to datagolf.

Grillo hasn't played the course well in the past but enters with three top-20s in his past three starts.

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.