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Valspar Championship: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats
After a down-to-the-wire finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, the PGA Tour rolls on to the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course.
Seven of the top 25 in the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up, headlined by Xander Schauffele, who finished T2 last week.
Here's all you need to know for this week.
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) Course Info
All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.
- Par: 71
- Distance: 7,340 yards (around 115 yards longer than the average par 71)
- Average Fairway Width: 27.9 yards (9th of 88 courses)
- Average Green Size: 5,822 square feet (average)
- Green Type: Poa overseed
- Stimpmeter: 12
- Recent Winning Scores: -10, -17, -17, -8, -10
- Recent Cut Lines: +1, -1, -1, +1, +3
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) Course Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Total Strokes Gained
Despite being a bit long for a par 71, Copperhead is more accuracy-centric than about power.
The fairways are narrow (9th among 88 courses on Tour, via datagolf), and it's one of the five hardest courses in that sample to gain strokes off the tee. The course is littered with bunkers, and water is in play on 9 of 18 holes, so trouble looms.
Sam Burns had consecutive wins at -17 with a playoff win in March of 2022 and a 3-shot lead in May of 2021. Winning scores tend to be around 10-under otherwise.
Best Golfers at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.
Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Course SG:T/Rd | Course SG:T | Starts | Wins | Top-10s | Top 25s | Missed Cuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Burns | $12,100 | 2.49 | 49.88 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Justin Thomas | $11,900 | 2.20 | 26.39 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Scott Stallings | $7,900 | 1.39 | 22.20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Davis Riley | $7,900 | 2.33 | 18.66 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $7,900 | 2.21 | 17.71 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Keegan Bradley | $10,300 | 1.44 | 17.24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,000 | 1.27 | 15.22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Valspar Championship Win Simulations
Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.
Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Win% | Top-10% | Top-20% | Made Cut% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | $12,300 | 12.78% | 49.79% | 65.84% | 86.65% |
| Sam Burns | $12,100 | 4.70% | 29.66% | 45.52% | 76.52% |
| Justin Thomas | $11,900 | 4.47% | 28.44% | 44.54% | 75.94% |
| Brian Harman | $11,100 | 3.75% | 25.71% | 41.30% | 74.15% |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,800 | 3.47% | 24.42% | 40.08% | 73.45% |
| Tony Finau | $11,500 | 2.64% | 20.89% | 35.45% | 70.47% |
| Sungjae Im | $10,900 | 2.56% | 20.81% | 35.35% | 70.35% |
Valspar Championship Betting Picks to Target
These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on my win simulation model and/or my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.
Xander Schauffele
My model is -- understandably -- highest on Xander Schauffele this week, and it's not particularly close. His win probability is supported by one of the best statistical profiles on the planet.
Over the last 50 rounds, Schauffele ranks 1st in true strokes gained per round as well as 8th in strokes gained: off the tee, 2nd in strokes gained: approach, 6th in strokes gained: around the green, and 11th in strokes gained: putting.
Schauffele also has a T12 here in his lone start back in 2022.
The value is there at +700, but that number has moved around a bit this week.
Doug Ghim
Ghim showed out last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, but this is about more than just chasing his T16 finish.
Ghim has been playing good golf lately and has finished T16 at the Cognizant Classic, T8 at the Mexico Open, T12 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open.
That's five straight top-20 finishes while having dominant irons. Over the last three months, he ranks 13th in strokes gained: approach.
There's definitely a path to a ceiling for Ghim, who finished T27 here last year while hitting a lot of fairways.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Bezuidenhout is more accurate than he is long, and he's a great short game player historically.
But his irons are trending up in a big way, and he actually finished fourth in strokes gained: approach last week at THE PLAYERS Championship while finishing T13 overall.
Bezuidenhout made the cut at Copperhead in his lone start when he finished T62 in 2022.
He's got the right upside profile overall. Over the last three months (eight events for Bezuidenhout), he ranks 3rd in approach and 15th in putting -- the two stats most aligned with single-week upside.
Aaron Rai
Rai's tee-to-green game is generally great (seventh in strokes gained: tee to green over the last 50 rounds), and he's much more accurate (1st in the field in that span) than he is long (132nd).
That sets up really well for Rai.
The biggest issue is that he ranks 126th in strokes gained: putting in that sample, and he is below-average in putting from within 10 feet. He's been a below-average putter for years now, so that could be all that's standing in his way with a victory.
Beau Hossler
Hossler is a good course fit -- in theory. He ranks 69th in accuracy and 93rd in distance. He's top-25 in both strokes gained: around the green and putting.
However, he has missed four of five cuts here with a top result of T39 in 2021.
With that said, he is at a +1.20 true strokes gained per round average in 2024, up nearly half a shot from last year's +0.72. His four most recent finishes before that were +0.13, -0.59, -0.31, and -0.06.
Simply put, he's been golfing substantially better now than ever before.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
