UFC Vegas 107 Best Bets and Props: Blanchfield vs. Barber

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Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 107: Blanchfield vs. Barber, taking place at the UFC Apex facility on Saturday.

UFC Vegas 107 Betting Picks

Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt

Leavitt by Points (+130)

Jordan Leavitt can replicate the formula of handing Kurt Holobaugh a loss that's largely worked since 2013.

A 38-year-old "Kurt the Hurt" still has had issues defending takedowns (39%), surrendering 16 over his last five bouts. He's 2-3 in this stretch thanks to a tight decision and submission of Austin Hubbard (3-7 UFC).

Leavitt's submission losses to Paddy Pimblett and Chase Hooper, two of lightweight's most voluminous sub artists, open the door to that possibility for some, but I just don't buy it -- especially when the 29-year-old has never been subbed by anyone outside those top-20 fighters.

Otherwise, "The Monkey King" is known for his dexterity and wrestling, landing 2.15 takedowns per 15.

Holobaugh has famously been submitted just once in his 30-fight pro career and adores chasing submissions off his back at the expense of winning rounds. I've got Leavitt 42.9% likely to win this fight on the cards.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson

Chiasson to Win (-120)
Chiasson by KO/TKO (+800)

If there's a talented fighter lacking an identity at women's 135, it's Ketlen Vieira. Can she hold off a surging Macy Chiasson in the rankings?

Chiasson is finally delivering on the potential her 5'11" frame always had to dominate UFC's weakest division on the women's side. She's won five of seven, including two in a row via finish.

At distance, Chiasson's four-inch reach edge will only exacerbate a striking efficiency gap. Her +0.98 striking success rate (SSR) towers over Vieira's -0.98 SSR, and a 70% takedown defense has shown quality wrestling D considering that's been the best path to defeat her.

Don't sleep on Chiasson's 0.49% knockdown rate when Vieira (51% striking D) hasn't often faced a more powerful striker at distance. She's likely held that edge in every fight since a first-round knockout loss to Irene Aldana in 2019.

I've got Chiasson 61.1% likely to win this fight, and it comes via knockout 14.9% of the time. Points is the most likely path to victory, but I think "Fenomeno" could respond extremely poorly to striking adversity given Chiasson's size.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein

Klein to Win (+136)

As MMA judging shifts toward scoring striking over wrestling, it'll be increasingly difficult to lay chalk with Mateusz Gamrot.

Outside of an injury to Rafael Fiziev in 2023, Gamrot's last five fights have all gone the distance. He's been in two split decisions. He lands just 3.23 significant strikes per minute, outpaced by Ludovit Klein (3.81) and several others in this division. That's led to a mediocre +0.01 SSR despite a 58% striking D that is more than responsible.

Klein is an unusually difficult matchup with a 91% takedown D, which is likely due to a stocky, 5'7" frame. It's tough to disrupt his center of gravity. "Mr. Highlight" is unbeaten in seven starts at lightweight.

I'd have expected Gamrot, a ranked fighter since 2021, to have a better strength of victory, but these two are tied in ranked wins (1) if you remove Gamrot's win over Fiziev due to a fluky torn ACL.

We saw how quickly Gamrot can fall behind in the scoring criteria as takedown attempts failed against Dan Hooker last year. I've got Klein 46.3% likely (+115 implied) to pull this upset, so it's definitely underdog or pass in the co-main event.

Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber

Barber to Win (+190)
Barber by Points (+420)

I've supported Erin Blanchfield for a long time. Skill for skill, she might be the most talented fighter in the women's flyweight division.

The problem is that she's increasingly not going "skill for skill" at the top of the division. Down on size, she has landed just 3 of 25 takedown attempts in her last three bouts, and it's led to an extremely fortunate 2-1 record thanks to a pair friendly decisions. At distance, Blanchfield's +1.03 SSR isn't quite as dominant as the fighter who submitted three of her first five UFC opponents.

Analytically, she has to be favored over Maycee Barber because of Barber's 53% takedown D. Most of that damage can in a win against Andrea Lee, though, where Lee -- not a wrestler -- stunned the masses by landing all five takedown attempts. No other fighter has floored "The Future" more than twice.

Like Blanchfield's -42 striking differential against Manon Fiorot, I don't think this moneyline is properly weighing the probability that "Cold Blooded" gets trapped at distance against Barber's +1.80 SSR. Plus, it's exhausting to wrestle for five rounds, which is why the favorite has attempted just 11 combined takedowns in her two 25-minute features.

My model has Barber 41.0% likely to win this bout. No fighter has finished Blanchfield yet, so it's a win via decision 37.4% of the time. I just don't believe Blanchfield has the size to dominate with grappling that Barber has assuredly prepared to face. Blanchfield's best success in UFC will come down at 115 pounds in the future.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.