UFC Baku Best Bets and Props: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr., taking place at the Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan on Saturday.

UFC Baku Betting Picks

Ismail Naurdiev vs. Jun Yong Park

Park by Submission or Points (-125)
Park by Submission (+460)

I'm not sure we got any questions answered about Ismail Naurdiev in his return to UFC.

Naurdiev outworked Bruno Silva over the course of three rounds last October, but Silva's five-fight losing skid and exit from UFC buoyed plenty of middleweights who looked far more human against everyone else. It was a curious signing by the promotion when Naurdiev's 3-3 regional run didn't seem to merit a reunion.

Jun Yong Park is a massive step up in competition for the Moroccan. Park has won 8 of his last 10 fights while still, tangentially, on the edge of his prime at 34. Park grinded out a decision win over the always-game Brad Tavares (16-10 UFC) in his last fight but entered that one with three straight victories via submission.

Naurdiev's 72% takedown D could be a bit of resistance, but level of competition and finishing danger are two huge arrows in the direction of "The Iron Turtle" here. I've got Park 60.6% likely to win this fight via submission or decision, and it's a sub 21.2% of the time.

It's not exactly hard to envision when Naurdiev was armbar'd on the regional scene just three fights ago.

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta

Over 1.5 Rounds (-128)
Sadykhov and Fight Starts Round 2 (-117)

Training with Merab Dvalishvili, Nazim Sadykhov is another of Serra-Longo MMA's best entrants.

It's a home game for Sadykhov in his native Azerbaijan, which could result in an explosion or perhaps a bit of nerves. Either way, "Black Wolf" is unbeaten in four UFC starts with great pace and wrestling, exhibited by a 62% takedown accuracy. His durability will be a critical factor opposite Nikolas Motta.

"Iron" Motta has ironed -- pun intended -- out the early kinks in his MMA game. His 82% takedown D has stood strong overall but he did struggle grappling in a submission loss to Trey Ogden that was, thankfully for him, erased due to an officiating error. But Ogden floored him three times before finding the sub, and Sadykhov will likely attempt the first takedowns against Motta since that bout.

The Brazilian's decent entry-level takedown D should provide a little resistance, but Sadykhov lands 1.06 more significant strikes per minute at distance on the feet with all of this fight's upside to grapple.

I'm showing value on the total with a 36.4% likelihood to go all 15 minutes compared to FanDuel's 30.8% implied odds. Other than a doctor's stoppage, Sadykhov's four UFC fights have all started Round 2, and his patented durability hasn't wavered.

This second pick is a parlay built behind the idea that the hometown fighter to get his hand raised in a lengthier fight that may or may not see its full distance.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Bahamondes by KO/TKO (+490)

I've got nothing against Rafael Fiziev, but fading him at the top level of lightweight has been a gold mine.

His opponent got my coin in three straight ranked losses, and Ignacio Bahamondes is not where my model is jumping off. Fiziev's offensive identity is a real problem when he combines a -0.10 striking success rate (SSR) with minimal grappling offense. His kick-heavy style is more cool than it is practical.

Frankly, my model would easily favor Bahamondes over Justin Gaethje, who took two clear decisions from Fiziev. "La Jaula" lengthy 75" reach is a problem for most, and he's combined efficiency (+2.73 SSR) with power (0.79% knockdown rate) in addition to a pair of wins via submission. The Chilean, to me, is one of the division's brightest prospects to dethrone whoever this champion is to end 2025.

In general, Fiziev's 90% takedown D has kept things standing. I'm not sure that's good news for his chin opposite Bahamondes.

I tracked the moneyline of Bahamondes, who I have 58.4% likely (-140 implied) to win this fight, earlier this week. If you missed the value on his rising line, my model's likeliest outcome for him is a (T)KO 29.6% of the time, which shows good value at +490 considering a decision is favored in this market.

Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Hill in Round 4, 5, or by Points (+280)

Light heavyweight is now the Magomed Anakalev Invitational, which is evidenced by these two one-dimensional contenders that probably only have a puncher's chance against the Russian.

Neither Jamahal Hill or Khalil Rountree Jr. can grapple, and that should make Saturday's main event an entertaining one. Hill's long combinations and quick hands will take on Rountree's powerful Muay Thai approach. As long as "Sweet Dreams" Hill's chin stays intact, I think he wins pretty handily.

That's no given as Hill has two straight losses by (T)KO, and Rountree's knockdown rate (2.54%) is huge. "Warhorse" just accumulated that against lesser competition, though, and that's the story of his record. Three of his last four wins are no longer with UFC due to age or ineffectiveness, and the exception against an aging Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1 UFC) was a robbery where he posted a -35 striking differential.

Last we saw Jamahal, he was mounting a furious, impressive comeback against Jiri Prochazka before getting clipped in the third round. He's also proved it at the championship level with a historic +157 striking differential against Glover Teixeira. That was a 205-pound title fight record that'll likely stand for decades.

Hill's three inches of height and reach should prove helpful in a striking battle, too. I've got Hill a tiny underdog (49.2%), but his low KD% (0.57%) opens the door to winning this fight after Round 3 simply by putting out more numbers and melting Rountree.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the UFC betting odds for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.