UFC 317 DFS Picks: Topuria vs. Oliveira

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday as part of International Fight Week.

UFC 317 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Jacobe Smith ($23)

The prospect prop-up spot on pay-per-view cards is becoming more common, and Jacobe Smith absolutely got one here. The Dallas-based wrestler scored seven takedowns in under 8 minutes on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) before just using his hands to score a quick knockout in his UFC debut. By either method, Smith figures to maul an aging Niko Price (8-8 UFC), who just let up seven takedowns in his last fight to a less-credentialed Themba Gorimbo. FanDuel's UFC 317 odds place him at -380 to win inside the first two rounds.

Ilia Topuria ($21)

You can do the math on Saturday's main event, where oddsmakers give Ilia Topuria a 62.3% implied chance to stop Charles Oliveira in the first three rounds. The 28-year-old Spaniard handed Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski their first losses by knockout at 145 pounds, and Oliveira just isn't as durable as those two with 8 losses by stoppage in 34 UFC starts. Topuria is undefeated behind impeccable striking (64%) and takedown (92%) defense.

Gregory Rodrigues ($18)

Finishes could be harder to find on the rest of the card, but "Robocop" is always a candidate. Rodrigues' debut in a main event showed an inability to manage a five-round pace, but he's 7-2 in three-round fights with UFC. 37-year-old Jack Hermansson has fought just once since the start of 2023, which makes the Brazilian's 1.10% knockdown rate (KD%) all that much more intimidating. If Robocop takes an aggressive approach, he'll absolutely win a firefight.

Terrance McKinney ($17)

I'm stunned that the betting line is moving against fan-favorite "T-Wrecks" this weekend. With the right approach, McKinney's aggressive wrestling (8.97 takedown attempts per 15 minutes) should mow through Viacheslav Borshchev's 43% takedown D. Honestly, the hardest thing for him to do might be not gassing himself out seeking an early finish on a safe, patient Borshchev. "Slava Claus" doesn't have a knockdown in his last four fights, so I think the notion that he can find McKinney's chin before getting taken down is a bit far-fetched.

Value Plays to Target

Hyder Amil ($13)

This line is lunacy. In March, an undefeated Hyder Amil more than doubled the previous high of a William Gomis (4-1 UFC) opponent in significant strikes landed (115). It was incredible validation of the Californian's skillset, which is based on elite volume and striking accuracy (57%). Without any durability concerns yet, I trust him immensely more than I do Jose Delgado, who has simply had to go through the motions to finish two opponents a combined 1-5 in UFC-affiliated bouts.

Kai Kara-France ($13)

I've been looking forward to Kai Kara-France as a matchup for flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja for a while. Pantoja's known weakness is his head defense, and KKF (1.19 KD%) can crack by this division's standards. Plus, Kara-France's 88% takedown D is arguably the best inside the rankings. The Kiwi flunked his first title shot against a defensively sound, well-rounded Brandon Moreno, but this first career matchup with Pantoja could be the perfect one for him to touch UFC gold.

Payton Talbott ($12)

Wait a minute, I though Payton Talbott was the next star in UFC's 135-pound division? Talbott's entry to the top 15 was denied by an always-game Raoni Barcelos (9-4 UFC), who showed his wrestling D might not be up to snuff yet. I still believe in the 26-year-old's tools and would put his odds to beat Felipe Lima (2-0 UFC) much better than they sit. My model sees Lima's opponents, Muhammad Naimov and Miles Johns, as two of the most overvalued guys in the division. It's a home game for Talbott, a Vegas native, too.

Alvin Hines ($9)

You give me a bald, heavyweight wrestler nicknamed "Goozie", and I'm probably in by default. Even better, Alvin Hines' ground game is the perfect antidote for Jhonata Diniz. The kickboxer surrendered one takedown to Marcin Tybura (14-8 UFC) and was stopped in the same round. An undefeated Hines will have to likely eat a shot or two to get this fight where he can win it, but Diniz's 69% takedown D hasn't been good enough when he's proven to be incapable of defending himself from bottom position.

Get a 50% Profit Boost Token to use on any wager for the Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. boxing fight and/or any UFC 317 fights taking place on June 28th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the UFC betting odds for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.