Thursday Night Football Preview: Can the Giants Put Up a Fight Against the 49ers?

Annie Nader•@ANader33

8mo

In one of the more lopsided matchups this week, the New York Giants will visit the San Francisco 49ers for Thursday night's primetime game.

Both teams are off the heels of a Sunday afternoon victory, though injuries could shake things up heading into the night. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. EST and can be streamed on Prime Video.

After falling short of their Super Bowl hopes in 2022, including back-to-back NFC Championship game defeats, the 49ers have come out with a vengeance this season. FanDuel Sportbook’s Super Bowl odds have them at +700 to win it all, second behind only the reigning champs from Kansas City.

Though the 2023 season is still young, and the real test will come once the Niners battle legitimate playoff contenders, it’s certainly a good sign for 49ers fans that their win-total line has jumped from 10.5 (in the preseason) to 12.5 after Week 2’s win.

The Giants, meanwhile, were a no-show in their season debut. Although they faced one of the league's best teams in the Dallas Cowboys, the 40-0 final score in Week 1 speaks for itself, and naturally, raised the team’s “To Make Playoffs” line from +184 (in the preseason) to +340. They needed a miracle comeback to beat the lowly Arizona Cardinals in Week 2.

Brian Daboll and the Giants will have to make some major adjustments in order to have a fighting chance against San Francisco on Thursday night.

Giants at 49ers Week 3 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

Spread: 49ers -10.0 (-115)
Total: 44
Moneyline:
- Giants: +430
- 49ers: -590

Giants at 49ers Week 3 Matchup Analysis

The statistical landscape of this matchup does not bode well for the New York Giants. numberFire’s efficiency rating (nERD), the performance grading used for team power rankings, shows a major gap between the 49ers' 7.30 nERD (2nd in NFL) and the Giants' -4.11 nERD (28th).

On offense, San Francisco boasts a 0.18 Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play (third-best in the NFL). NEP is numberFire's metric which tracks the expected points added -- or subtracted -- on a given play with team numbers being adjusted for opponent. New York has failed to move the needle in this regard, posting a -0.05 Adjusted NEP per play (23rd). The same goes for the defensive end, where the 49ers' -0.07 Adjusted Defensive NEP per play (5th) blows the Giants’ 0.19 Adjusted Defensive NEP per play (29th) out of the water.

Though the 49ers' early success should come as no surprise, it should be noted that the team has been outkicking their metaphorical coverage. Brock Purdy has put up absurd efficiency stats -- especially once you adjust for the defenses he has faced -- and could regress a bit going forward. Star running back Christian McCaffrey has averaged 134 rushing yards over two games when he only averaged 67 rushing yards per game in the 2022 season. Though these numbers may be indicative of just how good the Niners' studs are, it is not sustainable over a 17-game season, and we could be in for a potential drop back to reality on Thursday.

Week 1 fantasy darling Brandon Aiyuk is questionable to suit up for the San Francisco after suffering a shoulder injury, though a single-game absence shouldn’t have a major impact on the team. Tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Jauan Jennings are in the market for some targets after little production in the first two weeks, and Deebo Samuel should be able to pick up a lot of the heavy lifting should Aiyuk be ruled out.

As mentioned, the Giants bounced back from their embarrassing Week 1 rout with a win over Arizona on Sunday, but they shouldn't start doing victory laps for defeating one of the worst teams in the league. In fact, the Giants barely won the game, escaping the Cardinals' strong first-half outing by the skin of their teeth.

The good news is that Daniel Jones had a great second half, looking a lot more like the guy who had the third best QBR in the NFC in 2022. The bad news is that Saquon Barkley suffered an ankle injury and will be inactive for Thursday's game. Matt Breida is expected to fill in at the starting running back slot.

In order for the Giants to compete with the 49ers, they need to start getting some production from their wide receivers, who have been lackluster to say the least. A clear wide receiver stud has yet to emerge during the Daboll-Jones tenure. We already know it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for the Giants' offense to put up a goose egg, but perhaps offseason additions such as Parris Campbell or tight end Darren Waller can prove their worth. Otherwise, Big Blue is in for a doozy against the Niners.

Giants vs. 49ers Prop Bets

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards: Over 81.5 (-114)

Eighty-two rushing yards isn’t something to scoff at for just about every running back in the league --except for Christian McCaffrey.

Run CMC rushed for a whopping 152 yards on 22 carries against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 and clocked in 116 rushing yards on 20 carries opposite the Los Angeles Rams this past Sunday. Though the Rams let up 5.43 yards per rush (22nd in the NFL) and the Steelers are at 6.28 (23rd), the Giants are right there with them, permitting 7.08 yards per carry thus far (25th).

The Giants' defensive struggles are well-documented. They gave up 122 rushing yards in Week 1 against the Cowboys, including 102 yards to Dallas running backs. They followed up that poor defensive performance in Week 1 by allowing the Cardinals to rush for 151 yards, 106 of which were gained by lead running back James Conner. Big Blue has allowed 0.23 rushing yards over expectation per carry to running backs thus far -- although this has come with an above-average rushing success rate (34.6% compared to the league average of 39.2%).

Niners running back Elijah Mitchell has been a non-factor so far this season, and the team could use Thursday’s undemanding matchup and short week as a means to get him back in the rotation. However, McCaffrey has been on the field for 92.4% of snaps for San Francisco through two weeks, so even if CMC's usage takes a cut, he should have ample opportunity to capitalize on the Giants’ rush defense woes.

numberFire's projections predict McCaffrey to run for 95.3 yards on Thursday night, which is well above the line on this prop. It may seem like a truism to back McCaffrey, but this line is too good to ignore.

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards: Over 55.5 (-114)

Keep an eye out for Deebo Samuel to make a splash on the receiving end against the Giants.

Through two weeks of play, he’s averaging 59.0 receiving yards and is on the field for 89.5% of snaps. After facing two teams who rank in the top 15 in schedule-adjusted pass defense, the Niners’ competition is scaled back this week. The Giants sit 27th in pass D, so Samuel and San Francisco should have an easier time making plays on Thursday.

Since the status of Brandon Aiyuk (who exploded in the Niners’ season opener with 129 receiving yards) is in limbo, Samuel is in line to see increased targets.

numberFire’s projections predicts Samuel to grab 61.8 receiving yards on Thursday night. This, paired with the Giants' weak defense and Aiyuk’s potential limitations, makes him a great receiver to target.

Darren Waller Receiving Yards: Over 48.5 (-114)

Saquon Barkley’s inactive status and the inconsistency of the Giants’ receivers makes navigating New York player prop predictions a bit hazy, but offseason tight end addition Darren Waller could be primed to see increased targets.

In Week 1, Waller was targeted 5 times, hauling in 3 receptions for 36 receiving yards. He saw an uptick in production this past Sunday, with 8 targets and 6 receptions for 76 receiving yards. The latter performance was predominantly thanks to a major increase in snap percentage, which was up from 56.9% in Week 1 to 89.6% in Week 2. Given the outcome of these games and limited offensive weapons for Daniel Jones to work with, we can expect to see the Giants roll with Waller again this week.

Waller comes into the night with a team-leading 20.3% target share and 24.5% target-per-route rate. The Giants will need him to get cooking if they have any chance of staying in this game, so look for them to target Waller.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.