The American Express: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Win Simulations

This week, golfers will compete in a 54-hole cut event across three courses at The American Express.

Justin Thomas is teeing it up for the first time this year, and Daniel Berger will play in his first event since 2022.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

The American Express Event Information

• Recent Winning Scores: -27, -23, -23*, -26, -26
• Recent Cut Lines: -10, -7, -4*, -9, -9

*Indicates two-course rotation.

PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,187 yards
• Average Fairway Width: 34.9 yards (58th of 86 courses)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small)
• Green Type: Poa overseed

PGA West Jack Nicklaus Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,147 yards
• Average Green Size: 7,000 square feet (large)
• Green Type: Poa overseed

La Quinta Country Club Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,060 yards
• Average Green Size: 4,773 square feet (very small)
• Green Type: Poa overseed

The American Express Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Birdie or Better Rate
• Par 5 Scoring
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Putting

We've got three par 72s, so this is the type of week where par 5 scoring can separate the top from the rest.

Distance is generally a help but not a pre-requisite.

With La Quinta in the rotation, birdies are there, so ball-strikers who score are the general archetype wanted.

Best Golfers at The American Express

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this event -- not course.

The American Express Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

The American Express Betting Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on either my simulation model or other factors -- including my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Scottie Scheffler

To Win (+550)

While +550 odds are about as short as a favorite gets in a full field, there's a lot to like about Scheffler. Over the past 50 rounds, he is top three in all three strokes gained: tee to green areas. His putting remains weak (129th), and that is a real problem -- though the 31-putt sample from 5 to 15 feet this season is just above Tour average. Scheffler has putted well on the greens at the Stadium Course generally and has finished top-25 in three of four starts at this event.

Sam Burns

To Win (+3300)

To Finish Top 10 (+320)

Burns ended the 2023 season well enough. He was T15 at the BMW Championship and T9 at the TOUR Championship. He finished 16th at the 20-golfer Hero World Challenge but had 25 great shots (top three) and 23 poor shots (bottom seven) to bog down the finish.

Burns has finished T18, T6, cut, and T11 at this event in the past.

Beau Hossler

To Win (+9000)

To Finish Top 20 (+300)

There isn't much value (to me) in the outright market beyond the favorites. Hossler is a bit of an exception. This setup can be a putting contest, and Hossler is someone who can get hot with the putter. The recent results overall include three straight top-15s. He's very hit-or-miss.

Aaron Rai

To Win (+12000)

To Finish Top 10 (+850)

To Finish Top 20 (+350)

Rai has gained strokes with his approach play in four straight measured events and in seven of his past eight including DP World Tour starts. He also posted two top-10s on the DP World Tour in October and November. He knocked off the rust last week at the Sony Open with a T57 (with top-35 tee-to-green play but weak putting). The 120/1 odds are very interesting, though finishing positions still come with good odds.

Joseph Bramlett

To Finish Top 20 (+550)

Bramlett is a bit of an unknown in that his only start since July was last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Bramlett finished T52 overall but showed life with the irons (14th). He putted poorly (62nd). Datagolf also charged him with 16 great shots and 16 poor shots. If he shores up the volatility, the path to a top-20 finish is there.

Michael Kim

To Finish Top 20 (+550)

Kim ranks top-55 in strokes gained: approach, around the green, and putting, and that's a good start this week. He also has above-average distance off the tee. The results at this setup in the past have been bad, yet he is playing his best golf ever.

The American Express Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

The American Express DFS Studs

Scottie Scheffler ($12,400 | +550)

In addition to elite current form (top three in strokes gained: off the tee, approach, and around-the-green over the past 50 rounds), Scheffler has good event results at The American Express, including a solo 3rd, a missed cut, a T25, and a T11.

The putter is still bogging him down, yet he's an elite DFS play because of the tee-to-green game.

Tony Finau ($10,500 | +3500)

Finau's salary is down, in large part because weak putting has cooled off otherwise good ball-striking events. Over the past 50 rounds, Finau ranks 14th in strokes gained: approach but is 126th in putting.

His putting from 5 to 15 feet last season (46.4%) was right at the PGA Tour average (46.4%), so regression could be coming eventually.

Others to Consider:

• Patrick Cantlay ($12,100 | +900)
• Xander Schauffele ($11,900 | +1100)
• Sam Burns ($10,300 | +3300)

The American Express DFS Mid-Range Plays

Rickie Fowler ($9,500 | +7000)

Fowler's hot streak last summer led to just one win (the Rocket Mortgage Classic), yet it was spurred on by improved iron play (with great putting). The putting has tailed off lately, and he is still an average putter from 5 to 15 feet long-term (46.4%).

Adam Schenk ($9,500 | +9000)

While it's true that Schenk hasn't fared particularly well at this event in the past (three missed cuts in six starts with just one top-25 back in 2020), it's hard to compare his form then to his form now.

He's been a transformative iron player in recent seasons and was a top-50 putter from 5 to 15 feet last year.

Others to Consider:

• Stephan Jaeger ($9,600 | +7000)
• Beau Hossler ($9,400 | +9000)
• Aaron Rai ($9,100 | +12000)

The American Express DFS Value Plays

Nick Taylor ($8,600 | +12000)

Taylor is an easy case to make as a value this week. He is a top-20 iron player, which really stands out at the salary.

He's coming off of a T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii thanks to red hot irons, as well. In addition, Taylor has played this event nine times and is in a career-best spot in terms of form.

Joseph Bramlett ($7,700 | +20000)

Bramlett is the type of archetype I target a lot: strong tee to green (32nd) with questionable putting (119th). His putting from 5 to 15 feet last year ranked him 155th of 189 qualified golfers, so there are legitimate reasons to worry about the putting.

However, it's hard to find iron play as good as this below $8,000.

Others to Consider:

• Michael Kim ($8,400 | +22000)
• Doug Ghim ($8,500 | +25000)
• Ben Kohles ($8,600 | +17000)

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.