Super Bowl LVIII Betting Picks
Somehow and some way, we have reached the pinnacle point of the NFL season.
Super Bowl LVIII in "Fabulous" Las Vegas -- the first time the big game has ever dawned upon Southern Nevada -- is officially set with its participants. Of course, we are in store for a championship rematch four years in the making.
Winners of the NFC, the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers have qualified for their eighth Super Bowl all-time after a couple of gutsy comeback efforts through the postseason. Meanwhile, last season's Super Bowl winners -- the Kansas City Chiefs -- are looking to be the first franchise to hoist back-to-back Lombardi Trophies since 2004.
Naturally, both teams and fanbases (along with sports bettors) have that 2020 clash in Miami on the brain. In Super Bowl LIV, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs outlasted the Niners by a score of 31-20.
Earlier in the week, I authored an article on what San Francisco would need to do in to order turn the tables on K.C. in Vegas. Reciprocally, I shared which aspects of the game were paramount for Kansas City to win their third title in five years. Still, it is finally time we get into the numbers.
With the Super Bowl LVIII countdown almost to single digits, let's dive into the odds and lines, placing emphasis on the big game's traditional betting markets.
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
|O 47.5 (-110)
|U 47.5 (-110)
Super Bowl LVIII Betting Picks
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- National Anthem: Reba McEntire
- Halftime: Usher Raymond
- Head Referee: Bill Vinovich
- Game Spread: SF -2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: SF -130/KC +110
- Total: 47.5
When it comes to the Chiefs and 49ers, it is expected that neither side is bringing back the same squad from 2020. Still, there's enough heldover personnel in key positions: both head coaches, Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, Chris Jones, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk were all a part of Super Bowl LIV.
But, as for big-game newcomers, both teams have seen substantial additions.
San Francisco likes their chances behind all-world left tackle Trent Williams and rushing king Christian McCaffrey. Of course, quarterback Brock Purdy and receiver Brandon Aiyuk were both in college when the Niners last played K.C. in the Super Bowl. Notably, cornerback Charvarius Ward just earned second-team All-Pro honors for S.F., and ironically, he was a starting member of that Chiefs championship team from 2020.
Kansas City has done well to revamp the secondary since Ward left for San Francisco. Corners L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie both play with physicality while Nick Bolton is a rangey mikebacker. As another pass-rushing threat, edge George Karlaftis joins Jones in chasing down opposing quarterbacks. Truly, defense is now the strength in KCMO. Still, since defeating the Niners four years ago, the Chiefs' offense has added quality players in Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice.
Obviously, weather will not be a factor at Allegiant Stadium's enclosed confines (Vegas is chilly this time of year). Although, this venue's field maintains natural grass as opposed to artificial turf.
In terms of injuries, Kansas City will be without pass rusher Charles Omenihu due to a torn ACL. There's also a chance All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney (pectoral) misses the big game; he was unable to participate in the recent AFC Championship. The 49ers listed Kittle (toe) and Armstead (knee) with designations after the conference title bid, but neither are believed to be in jeopardy of playing.
Best Bet: 49ers Moneyline (-130)
I see San Francisco HC Kyle Shanahan bringing his career arch full-circle this season.
As one of the top football stories of the era, Shanahan has turned former-Mr. Irrelevant Purdy into a top quarterback in this league. Believe it or not, the Iowa State Cyclones alum led the recent regular season in both QBR (72.7) and yards per attempt (9.6). When the Niners' offensive scheme is churning, they are nearly impossible to defend.
At numberFire, San Francisco is projected to defeat the Chiefs by a score of 26.23-23.82. When surveying the various on-field matchups, I genuinely believe S.F. has the better overall team. Mostly, it comes down to the fact that I think the 49ers will stick to the ground game behind CMC when numberFire's NFL power rankings have K.C. 28th in defending the run.
Niners DC Steve Wilks will need his unit to start with amplified urgency in Super Bowl LVIII, but I see his D-line being the key group -- especially if Thuney is unable to go for Kansas City. That may open the door for Armstead or first-year Niners Javon Hargrave and Chase Young. On the outside, Bosa will draw a favorable matchup with Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor.
According to Pro Football Focus, Taylor recorded a pass-blocking grade of only 66.4 in 2023. Also, he was flagged more often (20 penalties drawn) than any other player at his spot.
Frankly, Taylor will need the game of his life going against the 2022 DPOY.
Preferred Total: Over 47.5 (-110)
If I were to make a play on the total of 47.5, over (-110 odds) would be the lean.
Both of these starting quarterbacks have navigated through inclement playing conditions -- Mahomes in all three playoffs, Purdy in the Divisional Round -- as of late, and that will not be the case in "Sin City." With the building's north window closed, Allegiant Stadium will provide optimal passing conditions.
Additionally, Mahomes and Purdy each have recent familiarity with this year's Super Bowl venue. As a member of the AFC West, Mahomes travels to Allegiant Stadium annually to play the Las Vegas Raiders. Purdy made a start in Vegas at the end of the 2022, carving up Raider Nation for 284 yards and two scores through the air. Also, the 49ers went to Southern Nevada over the most recent preseason.
Of course, the defenses on hand demand respect. The Chiefs were the second-best scoring D (17.3 PPG allowed) in the NFL. Across the field, San Francisco was tied for the league lead in interceptions (22).
Still, with everything on the line, I would trust in the Mahomes-to-Kelce connection. Subsequently, I like the 49ers' third-ranked scoring offense (30.5 PPG including playoffs) to use their many weapons, keeping Kansas City's defense off balance -- but it all starts with the ground game for S.F.
If you're looking for a Super Bowl MVP prediction, I like McCaffrey. Genuinely, CMC should have received more attention for the league MVP award, but that is typically steered toward signal-callers.
At +450 odds, this season's rushing king is a valuable play in the big-game MVP market. Keep in mind, you are getting a tailback who is the definitive focal point of San Francisco's offense; McCaffrey is averaging 22.8 touches per game (including playoffs) in the current campaign. Additionally, the Stanford Cardinal alum has already scored 25 all-purpose touchdowns, pacing the NFL.
By far, McCaffrey has the shortest pricing (-210) in FanDuel's Super Bowl LVIII Anytime TD odds market. If you think CMC can run for two touchdowns in the big game, he is listed at +410 odds to accomplish that feat.
Transparently, a running back has not won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998. With that, I also like Nick Bosa (80-to-1 odds) as a dart play in this market at FanDuel Sportsbook facing Taylor.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.