F1

Spanish Grand Prix Betting Picks: Can Lando Norris Claim Another Win?

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
Spanish Grand Prix Betting Picks: Can Lando Norris Claim Another Win?

After a string of tracks that set up poorly for Red Bull, we finally get a true test again this weekend.

In both Monaco and Montreal, Red Bull was at a disadvantage due to their inability to ride the curbs. Max Verstappen still managed victory in the latter race, but he had to work for it.

This week in Barcelona, things are different. It's a true race track rather than a street circuit, so Red Bull's weaknesses will be less glaring. We should expect them to flex some muscle again.

Still, it's important to remember what happened in the two races before this stretch. Lando Norris toppled Verstappen in Miami and came within a second of victory in Imola. So while Red Bull gets a boost, they'll still face stiff competition.

That's reflected in my model's pre-practice simulations, which are below. Verstappen is the clear favorite, but Norris is likely closer than Red Bull would like.

Driver
Win
Podium
Top 6
Points
Max Verstappen62.0%86.7%87.0%87.0%
Lando Norris20.1%81.4%87.0%87.0%
Charles Leclerc6.5%47.1%84.2%86.6%
Oscar Piastri3.4%24.9%75.3%86.5%
Carlos Sainz3.2%23.4%73.2%85.9%
George Russell1.7%11.6%56.0%86.3%
Sergio Perez1.6%11.0%51.4%84.1%
View Full Table

I'm pretty in line with market on Verstappen. He's -210 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's F1 betting odds, which is 67.7%. Thus, I don't think the model is undervaluing him.

Yet it still shows value on Norris.

Norris is +550 to win at FanDuel, which is 15.4% implied. I've got him at 20.1%, a healthy chunk above that. He's also a value to podium: 65.5% implied at -190 versus 81.4% for me.

I think this makes plentiful sense. Norris has podiumed in four of the past five races, with the lone exception being Monaco. He had a better median lap time than Verstappen in Miami, meaning his victory there wasn't exclusively due to a well-timed safety car. Verstappen was a good amount faster than Norris in Montreal once the track dried out, but the model is accounting for that in putting Verstappen out front.

I think we still have a window to buy into Norris. He has had speed at a bunch of different tracks, and he'd be the driver most likely to benefit should Verstappen run into issues. I'm more than okay backing him at +550, though I understand if you'd rather sidestep Verstappen and bet him to podium, instead, at -190.

The other decent value lies in the two Alpines -- Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon -- to score points. Both are +410, which is 19.6%, down from 29.1% for Gasly and 25.7% for Ocon in my sims.

Gasly has scored points in two of three races since receiving the team's upgrades, and Ocon has done so in two of four (he received the upgrades one race before Gasly). Importantly, their qualifying pace has improved, too, meaning it's less likely than it was before that their odds lengthen on Saturday.

Between the two, I prefer Gasly, but I think both are worth a look as their early-season struggles continue to allow us to buy low.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.