Premier League Betting Guide Matchweek 5: Will Manchester United Defeat Brighton?

With the first international break of the campaign over, the EPL is back in action!

Matchweek 5 -- which starts on Saturday -- features 10 matches and is highlighted by a clash between Brighton and Manchester United.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Best Bets: Matchweek 5

Brighton at Manchester United (10:00 a.m. ET Saturday)

Brighton Moneyline (+195)

To say things aren't going well for Manchester United this season would be an understatement. Through four games, United have recorded two narrow wins against lesser opposition (Wolves and Nottingham Forest) and have been soundly outplayed by both Tottenham and Arsenal. Brighton is closer to the latter than the former.

On top of their poor form, United enter this clash with numerous injuries and off-field concerns. They are expected to be without Luke Shaw, Mason Mount, Raphael Varane, Antony, and Jadon Sancho. Sofyan Amrabat might be available to make his debut, but United could also be missing Lisandro Martinez, which would force Harry Maguire -- who dealt with intense criticism during the international break -- into the starting lineup.

Despite those concerns, United enter this fixture as home favorites (+120). United's expected goal (xG) differential of +0.6, per FBRef, ranks 11th in the league. They have struggled on both ends of the pitch but have been better at creating chances than stopping them. Their 8.0 xG accumulated ranks 6th while their 7.4 xG allowed ranks 15th. The problem for United is that they are drastically underperforming their positive xG numbers, with just five actual goals scored, a difference of -3. The only sides with a larger difference are Chelsea (-3.3) and Everton (-5.2).

Brighton's xG differential (+1.2) ranks 7th. They have been a much better side going forward this season than in defense. Their 9.0 xG amassed ranks 2nd while their 7.8 xG allowed ranks 17th. Unlike United, they have overperformed on both metrics, with 12 goals scored and just 6 conceded.

Brighton's attacking efficiency matches up perfectly with a United defense that has conceded multiple goals in each of their last three matches. Brighton's weakness at the back is concerning, but United's struggles to capitalize on their chances should help shield that.

Brighton lead the league in shots per 90 minutes (20.50) and shots on target per 90 (8.75). United rank 15th in shots allowed per 90 (16.50) and 7th in shots 14th in shots allowed on target per 90 (5.25).

It is not an easy task to travel to Old Trafford and take all three points. Both of United's wins have come at home this season. That said, these are two clubs headed in completely opposite directions at the moment. I believe Brighton is the better team, and I'm taking them to win at +195.

Chelsea at Bournemouth (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday)

Chelsea Moneyline (-130)

We are four games into the season, and results-wise, things aren't going any better for Chelsea than they were last year when the Blues finished 12th. Their lone win came against Luton Town, and the last time we saw Chelsea they lost 1-0 to Nottingham Forest. Despite playing three of their four matches at home thus far, they have just four points and currently sit in 12th.

The good news for Chelsea is that, unlike last season, their xG numbers indicate that they should not be where they are.

Chelsea finished last season with an xG difference per 90 of -0.08, which ranked 10th. So far this season, their xG difference per 90 sits at +1.02, fourth-best behind only Manchester City, Brentford, and Arsenal. That is partially supported by a schedule that included games against Forest and Luton Town, but they also faced an in-form West Ham and Liverpool.

Chelsea's xG metrics are strong on both ends of the pitch. Their 8.3 xG in attack is tied with Arsenal for the fourth-highest, while their 4.3 xG allowed ranks 3rd-best.

Their issue is -- just like Manchester United -- they are underperforming those expected outcomes. They have been less efficient on offense than even United have been, scoring just five goals from 8.3 xG. On defense, they have conceded five times from 4.3 xG allowed. On the surface, this appears to be the same old Chelsea, but the potential is there for them to turn things around.

Even if Chelsea are worse than their xG numbers indicate, they should find success against Bournemouth.

The Cherries are winless on the season, and their -3.7 xG differential ranks 16th. They have been especially vulnerable on defense -- their 9.1 xG allowed ranks 18th.

For a Chelsea side that is generating chances but struggling to finish, this is an excellent chance to put in a positive performance.

The caveat to Bournemouth's xG metrics is the schedule they've faced, which includes games against West Ham, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Brentford. Given West Ham's form, that's a very difficult opening stretch, and the Cherries are likely a better side than xG numbers currently show.

That said, Chelsea's metrics are better than all of those side's numbers except Brentford (+1.28 xG per 90), and the Blues are deserving favorites in this one.

Player Props

Nicolas Jackson to Score (+140): Jackson is a large part of the difference between Chelsea's xG (8.3) and their actual goals (5). Of their -3.3 difference, Jackson is responsible for 2.0 of it, tallying 1 actual goal from 3.0 xG. Jackson's 15 shots are tied for third-most in the league. The opportunities should be there for Jackson to find the back of the net this weekend.

Raul Jimenez to Score or Assist (+100): Fulham have endured a rough start to their season, with games against an in-form Brentford, Arsenal, and Manchester City. On Saturday, they face a Luton Town side that has conceded an average of 3.0 goals per match through three games. Jimenez has registered just 0.4 xG this season, but this matchup gives him a solid chance to make an impact.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.