NHL Stanley Cup Odds Update: Can Colorado Hold Off the Field?

With the All-Star break here and at least 45 games in the books for every team, we are now into the second half of the NHL season.

While we pause to enjoy the break, let's look at how the chase for the Stanley Cup is shaping up, per the Stanley Cup Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Lines are subject to change after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

Here are the latest odds for the Stanley Cup:

Stanley Cup Betting Odds

Colorado Avalanche (+800)

The Colorado Avalanche remain the favorites, but their odds have narrowed slightly since our last update, moving from +750 +800. With 49 games played, they sit at 32-14-3 with 67 points, good for first in the Central Division and second in the West behind the Vancouver Canucks.

While Colorado’s odds have not shifted much, the odds of their closest competitors have. In our last update, the next closest team, the Carolina Hurricanes, had odds of +1000. Now, there are three teams with better odds than that. The race is tightening up.

The strength of Colorado’s game continues to be their goal scoring. They lead the NHL in goals (190). In 5 on 5 situations, their Corsi % (52.43) ranks eighth and their Fenwick % (51.9%) ranks ninth. Their 3.56 xG/60 ranks third behind only the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers.

Compared to the other teams on this list, the weakness in Colorado’s game this season has been their defense. They are allowing 3.16 xG/60, which ranks 20th, slightly behind the Boston Bruins and well behind Florida, Edmonton, and Carolina. Combined, they rank sixth in xG differential/60 (+0.40) but have overperformed their underlying metrics -- they rank fifth in actual goal differential/60 (+0.73).

Edmonton Oilers (+850)

Since our last update, Edmonton has jumped up the odds table, moving from outside the top five to second. They are on a 16-game win streak, and with just 45 games played, they sit in third in the Pacific Division and sixth in the West.

After a slow start to the season that saw them win just two of their first 12 games, the Oilers have become an elite team. They rank second in xG/60 (3.75) and are allowing the second-fewest xG/60 (2.69). Their xGD/60 (+1.06) ranks second.

They are one of only two teams with an xGD/60 greater than +1.0. The gap between Edmonton in second and the Los Angeles Kings in third (0.38) is similar to the gap between the Kings and the Dallas Stars in eighth (.32).

The scary part for the rest of the league is that, unlike the Avalanche, the Oilers are underperforming their underlying metrics. They rank fourth in actual goal differential/60 (.75) below their expected results.

Looking ahead, the Oilers are well-positioned to continue their momentum in the second half of the season and, come the playoffs, make a serious push for the Stanley Cup.

Boston Bruins (+950)

Boston’s odds have improved from +1100 to +950 since our last update. They jump up two spots on the odds table from fifth to third. With 49 games played, they sit in first in the East and are tied with Vancouver for the best record in the league.

The Bruins’ underlying metrics indicate that they are a good team but not an elite one. They are overperforming those metrics by such a large margin it has not mattered yet.

Boston ranks 10th in xG/60 (3.24) and is allowing the 13th-most xG/60 (3.02). Their xGD/60 (+0.20) ranks 11th. The Bruins are overperforming their metrics in both phases of the game. They rank sixth in actual goals/60 (3.44), .20 above their expected result.

The real difference-maker for the Bruins has been their defense. They are allowing just 2.55 goals/60 from 3.02 xG allowed/60.

Their –23.79 goals against above expected is the second-highest in the NHL behind only the Winnipeg Jets (-27.47). They also rank second in total goal differential above expected (+33.63) behind Vancouver (+47.43).

The play of goalies Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman has been the key. They rank seventh and fifth, respectively, in goals saved above expected. Combined, they have saved 24.4 more goals than expected.

Florida Panthers (+950)

The Panthers’ odds have improved slightly since our last check-in, from +1000 to +950, and they remain in fourth on the odds table. With 49 games played, Florida sits in second in the Atlanta Division and Eastern Conference, sitting behind the Bruins in both by 5 points.

Like Boston, the strength of the Panthers’ game is their defense. They allow the third-fewest xG/60 (2.73) and have overperformed that, allowing just 2.55 goals/60, the third-fewest in the NHL.

The problem for Florida so far has been an offense that is drastically underperforming its underlying metrics. The Panthers rank first in xG/60 (3.81) but rank just 13th in actual goals/60 (3.18). Their –31.71 goals for above expected ranks last in the NHL. They have an actual goal differential/60 of +0.63 from a league-leading xGD/60 of +1.07.

It all adds up to a –22.03 goal differential above expected that ranks 31st. When you consider that the Panthers have underperformed by that much, and Boston has overperformed by 33.6 goals, it is amazing that they are only separated by five points.

If the Panthers can start to perform up to expectations on offense, they can quickly close that gap. Either way, they have the outlook of a true contender that will be ready for another deep playoff run.

Carolina Hurricanes (+1000)

Since our last update, the Hurricane’s odds have stayed at +1000, but they have moved from second on the odds table to fifth. They remain an excellent side, but the competition is fierce. With 48 games in the books, Carolina sits in fourth in the East with 61 points.

The Hurricanes are a solid side in both phases of the game and have slightly underperformed their underlying metrics. Carolina ranks eighth in xG/60 (3.34) and has allowed the fewest xG/60 in the NHL (2.68). Their xGD/60 (+0.66) ranks fourth.

On offense, they are performing exactly to expectations, with 3.34 goals/60 being the 10th-most in the league. On defense, they have unperformed their league-best xG metrics, allowing 2.9 goals/60, the 12th-fewest in the NHL. They have allowed 10.99 more goals against than expected, which is the fourth-most.

Therein lies the problem, as the Hurricanes rank outside the top nine in both goals for and goals against so far this season. Their actual goal differential/60 of +0.43 ranks ninth, five spots lower than their xGD/60.

A perennial postseason contender, Carolina is still well-positioned to make some noise come the playoffs. Their metrics indicate that they should start to allow fewer goals, and if they do, could make a move up the odds list.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.