NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 12/16/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins ($7,400)

As much as I'd like to have a quality goaltender facing a suboptimal offense, many of the best options are in a spot where they'll either face a potent attack or one so impotent that shot volume could be a concern.

Therefore, with risk, I really don't mind turning to Tristan Jarry ($7,400) despite the dicey road spot against the Toronto Maple Leafs. While Toronto's potent offense (3.37 expected goals per 60) isn't ideal, they put plenty of pucks on net at 62.6 Corsi per 60 minutes. There are save points lurking.

Plus, trusting Jarry has rarely gone wrong this season. He's third in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (14.32) across 21 appearances.

Liking the Pittsburgh Penguins to win tonight, Jarry makes plenty of sense as a tournament pivot off of high-floor options like Semyon Varlamov ($8,300) or Cam Talbot ($8,200). Those guys are better cash-game picks.

Stacks

Tampa Bay Lightning

When a great offense facing a terrible goaltender likely won't even be popular on this slate, we need to take advantage.

The epicenter of tonight's DFS slate should be the Florida Panthers-Edmonton Oilers clash with a 6.5-goal total (which is -134 to the over), but numberFire's model actually has a pretty solid lean to the under there. I prefer the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on Dan Vladar and the Calgary Flames.

Tampa Bay is still tied for 10th across the NHL in goals per 60 minutes (3.29) despite a "down year" by the two-time recent Stanley Cup Champions' standards, and luckily for DFS purposes, they've really concentrated their top players to the premium ice positions. Nikita Kucherov ($10,500), Brayden Point ($7,900), Steven Stamkos ($7,600), and Victor Hedman ($6,800) all correlate perfectly across their top even-strength and power-play unit.

Vladar's struggles open the door when the Flames' skaters (3.05 expected goals allowed per 60) have been just fine. Vladar is 70th of 76 qualifying goaltenders in GSAx (-5.40) with an ugly .883 save percentage (Sv%).

I'll take such a lopsided matchup at minimal popularity.

Buffalo Sabres

A goaltending shift in Arizona tonight could also produce another under-the-radar stack.

I wouldn't want any piece of the Arizona Coyotes' starting goalie, Connor Ingram (16.20 GSAx). Ingram has powered himself into the Vezina conversation this year. However, on the second leg of a back-to-back, Karel Vejmelka (-2.93 GSAx) just hasn't produced the same results when Arizona isn't a very strong defense outside of their goaltender (3.23 expected goals per 60 minutes).

That will come at a perfect time for a Buffalo Sabres squad that just got Tage Thompson ($7,000) back into the fold with a far lower salary than we're accustomed to. As always, he's skating on Buffalo's top even-strength and power-play line and is joined there currently by Rasmus Dahlin ($7,400), Alex Tuch ($6,800), and Zach Benson ($3,700). Benson's salary is extremely helpful to make it all work.

We've not seen a ton of 6.5-goal totals in Arizona this year, but this one is higher for good reason.

Value Skaters

Johnny Gaudreau, W, Columbus Blue Jackets ($4,900)

The worst goaltender on the slate is facing a Columbus Blue Jackets team that's brutally hard to stack. While a shame, we've at least got a value play.

Only Zach Werenski ($6,400) and John Gaudreau ($4,900) play across both their top even-strength line and power-play unit, but the artist known as "Johnny Hockey" can help us out on the wing.

Gaudreau's really picked up the pace in recent games. He's got five points in seven December contests, leaving me wondering why his salary has lagged behind. Tonight's matchup is great to keep it going; the New Jersey Devils have ceded 3.38 expected goals per 60 minutes, and Vitek Vanecek (-7.58 GSAx) has let a boatload more in behind him.

Gaudreau is projected for 11.9 FanDuel points tonight, per numberFire.

Nick Schmaltz, W, Arizona Coyotes ($4,400)

On the other side of the Sabres, the Yotes could add to that game's total, too.

Though Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (2.76 GSAx in 14 appearances) hasn't been bad, Buffalo just isn't a good defensive hockey club. They've allowed the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.27) in the league.

Arizona's top line is one of the best value stacks on the board today. Outside of Clayton Keller ($6,400), the remaining trio -- Nick Schmaltz ($4,400), Janis Moser ($4,300), and Alexander Kerfoot ($4,100) -- come at extremely low salaries.

Schmaltz, specifically, is the top per-dollar play in numberFire's model today at 13.7 projected FanDuel points. I just really like all of them in an environment that might not get much attention.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.