NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 12/16/23

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 26 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

Jets ML (-104)
Connor Hellebuyck 28+ Saves (+110)

This price likely comes as a total shock to many, but the goaltending news in this one is of the utmost important.

The Winnipeg Jets will turn to Connor Hellebuyck on Saturday, and he's repeated his dominant season from a year ago. At 11.82 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), Hellebuyck is sixth in the NHL through 21 appearances. The Jets' positive goals-for rate (55.0%) would likely be negative if not for him.

On the other side, the Colorado Avalanche will rest Alexandar Georgiev for Ivan Prosvetov on the road. Prosvetov has been excellent this year (6.20 GSAx), but I still don't quite trust him after posting -0.89 GSAx last year in a much larger sample.

numberFire's model projects Winnipeg to win this one 56.5% of the time, and If the Jets are going to do so, Hellebuyck will likely be busy. The Avs post the seventh-most Corsi per 60 minutes (64.4).

nF's projections have Hellebuyck pegged for 27.6 saves, so I'll take plus money on a slight overperformance by the former Vezina Trophy finalist.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs

Penguins ML (+112)
Jake Guentzel Anytime Goal (+110)

I don't understand this betting line at all given the goaltenders confirmed for this one.

Tristan Jarry of the Pittsburgh Penguins is third in the NHL in GSAx (14.32), and we simply can't expect that from Martin Jones in the Toronto Maple Leafs' net at this stage. Jones' 1.06 GSAx in three appearances is a nice start, but this is a goaltender who posted -10.61 GSAx last year with the San Jose Sharks.

These are two teams that will put immense pressure on those netminders. Pittsburgh is fourth in the NHL in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.43), and Toronto is seventh (3.37). They're prolific offenses through and through.

The Pens enter this one with an extra day of rest, and if you're scared of Toronto at home, they're just 4-10 against the spread (ATS) in their building. That would mean a tight game or loss this evening.

If the Penguins end up doing some damage to Jones, Jake Guentzel likely leads the charge. Guentzel mans the left wing on Pittsburgh's top even-strength and power-play units, amassing a 20:32 TOI average thus far. He's posted 0.46 goals and 3.46 shots per game thus far this season.

Once again, numberFire's projections believe Guentzel deserves -127 odds to score tonight, so these +110 odds are a nice source of value.

New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens

Under 6.5 (-134)

While I'm not sure what's happened to Ilya Sorokin as the New York Islanders' starter this season, his backup has kept up the elite level of play that Ilya had previously set as the standard.

Semyon Varlamov has posted 7.69 GSAx in just 10 starts this year, giving me plenty of confidence facing one of the worst offenses in the league. The Montreal Canadiens have posted just 2.98 expected goals per 60 minutes this year -- eighth-worst in the NHL.

The Isles (3.00 expected goals per 60) aren't much better, and they'll meet Montreal's breakout star in goal. Sam Montembeault has posted 4.66 GSAx himself, ranking 23rd of 76 qualifying goalies.

With two excellent netminders and poor offenses, I'm not sure how this total is 6.5 in any capacity, but the -134 odds may not be high enough yet. numberFire's model expects fewer than seven tallies 58.3% of the time in this one.

Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues

Blues ML (+114)
Brayden Schenn to Record a Point (-102)

Goalie news, goalie news, and more goalie news. This time, the St. Louis Blues should have an advantage based on how these teams cycled their netminders.

The Dallas Stars played yesterday, burning starting goalie Jake Oettinger in a 5-4 win. That leaves Scott Wedgewood (-0.09 GSAx) tasked with the Blues tonight, and it likely was schemed that way when St. Louis' offense (3.09 expected goals per 60) has been fairly mediocre all season.

The problem to win this one is that Dallas' offense (3.12 expected goals per 60) has been nearly as bad, but they'll be firing shots at Jordan Binnington. At 9.33 GSAx, Binnington is having his best year since winning the Stanley Cup back in 2019.

The 17-8-3 Stars couldn't be placed as underdogs in this spot, but St. Louis has a very real chance to win tonight's game.

If they do, this line for Brayden Schenn to record a point is oddly low. Schenn's on-ice role (17:12 TOI) isn't massive, but he skates on the Blues' top power-play unit come scoring time. Schenn has 16 points in 28 games within that role.

numberFire has Schenn projected for 0.52 points in this one, so I'll take the near 50-50 plunge that he finds the scoresheet.

Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers

Under 6.5 (+128)

This is the riskiest bet of these ones listed, but there are reasons to take a stab at a contrarian under in Edmonton tonight.

There's no doubt the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers can score. They're first and second in expected goals per 60 minutes, but in reality, these are just two of the most well-rounded teams in the game.

Florida also allows the sixth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.25), and Edmonton allows the seventh-fewest (3.28). Really, they're elite defensive teams except one -- the Oilers -- has battled goaltending issues all season. That's at least not been the case right this moment.

Calvin Pickard -- finally -- has brought some positivity to the Oils' net at 1.46 GSAx in three games so far. It's a small trend, but it's an upgrade from downright abohorrent. For the Ice Cats, Sergei Bobrovsky (4.49 GSAx) has been solid all season.

numberFire's model still likes under 6.5 goals 49.9% of the time in this one, so we'll take plus money. Also, this total is assuredly getting slammed in one direction. We might even be able to wait for a 7.0 or 7.5-goal total with how juiced this is to over 6.5 tallies at present.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.