NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 11/11/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Jonas Johansson, Tampa Bay Lightning ($7,600)

While the Carolina Hurricanes aren't the safest matchup, Jonas Johansson ($7,600) has a tremendous ceiling should he perform well tonight.

Carolina has the highest Corsi For per 60 minutes in the league (72.3), but they're not always the best looks. Their 3.25 expected goals per 60 minutes ranks just 12th in the NHL. Empty, easy saves are exactly what we're hoping for in DFS, and Johansson might get several of them tonight.

As a talent, Johansson has done a nice job filling in for Andrei Vasilevskiy, posting 1.18 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this season. That's 31st of 68 qualifying goaltenders, but the Tampa Bay Lightning would absolutely take it.

Also, don't discount the Bolts' chances of winning this game outright as an underdog, propelling him to a win bonus. numberFire's model actually expects Tampa to win this home contest 69.3% of the time due to the Canes' goaltending issues on the other side.

Stacks

Seattle Kraken

I dream about stacks like the Seattle Kraken tonight.

The Kraken get the single best matchup in the sport against the Edmonton Oilers' awful goaltending duo. At -8.01 cumulative GSAx, there'd be an argument that Stuart Skinner was the worst goalie in the NHL this year if his backup, Jack Campbell (-3.24 GSAx), didn't have a worse rate per minute on the ice. These two have been swiss cheese in the Edmonton crease this season.

Even better, we can attack them with value-level players that correlate. Jared McCann ($6,000), Matty Beniers ($4,500), and Kailer Yamamoto ($3,500) full correlate across the Sea Monsters' top even-strength and power-play units, joined by blue-liner Vince Dunn ($5,200). Their collective salaries leave any other premium, obvious stack on the slate -- like the Lightning or opposing Oilers -- on the table.

Until the 2-9 Oilers prove they can keep pucks out of the net, we should keep attacking them on the main slate.

Vancouver Canucks

The Vancouver Canucks shouldn't carry much popularity tonight, but I love them when accounting for the Toronto Maple Leafs' swap in goal.

While Toronto is a tough out with Joseph Woll (2.10 GSAx) in net, Ilya Samsonov (-5.61 GSAx) is an entirely different story. They burned Woll on Friday, so on a back-to-back with tired legs, they might rely on Samsonov to make big saves that, to this point, he's proven he can't handle.

Vancouver is the league's breakout story at 10-2-1 thus far, yet their salaries have been bumped on FanDuel to a point where I'm leaning DFS players won't trust them for the acquisition cost. Elias Pettersson ($9,600) has a full-blown stud salary anchoring the 'Nucks top line at 5-on-5 and with a man advantage. He's joined in both situations by defenseman Quinn Hughes ($7,200) and winger Andrei Kuzmenko ($4,900).

Kuzmenko's salary offsets Petterson and Hughes' above-average marks. For a final member of this stack, you can turn to J.T. Miller ($9,000), who joins them on the power play. If needing a lower-salaried piece, Ilya Mikheyev ($5,200) is a fourth man at even strength.

I believe in Vancouver's ability to win this game, and their top line will likely continue to do a bulk of the lifting offensively.

Value Skaters

Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Washington Capitals ($4,300)

While targeting a prop behind Evgeny Kuznetsov ($4,300) on FanDuel Sportsbook today, he's also undervalued in this game setting.

Kuznetsov was promoted to the Washington Capitals' top line at even strength and with a man advantage on Wednesday, and he's responded with 22:45 TOI inside the role. He averaged 21:53 in October, so the extra shifts and key situations -- like overtime -- next to Alex Ovechkin certainly haven't hurt.

There are upsides and downsides to Kuznetsov's matchup tonight. The opposing New York Islanders are third-worst in Corsi Allowed per 60 minutes (69.9), so pucks find their way on net, but to this point, Semyon Varlamov (7.89 GSAx in four starts) has routinely swallowed them.

For that reason, it might be best to just stick to Kuz as a one-off and avoid stacking this game. He's one of the best projected values in numberFire's model today; it's expecting 12.1 FanDuel points for him at a median.

Pavel Buchnevich, W, St. Louis Blues ($4,200)

While some might start this slate with the Colorado Avalanche's studs, I actually prefer the visiting St. Louis Blues for the salary they command on FanDuel.

From a skating perspective, Colorado has only ceded 2.68 expected goals per 60 (third-best in the NHL), so it's not a "dream" matchup like Seattle's. However, in goal, Alexandar Georgiev (-1.42 GSAx) has struggled. Georgiev has allowed at least three goals in each of his last six games, so the near-zero attention St. Louis will get in this spot is probably too little.

Projected for 11.5 FanDuel points, Pavel Buchnevich ($4,200) holds nF's top value score of the day from the St. Louis side, but Robert Thomas ($6,200), Jordan Kyrou ($5,700), and Brayden Schenn ($4,200) comprise the Blues' top power-play unit for mid-range -- or below -- salaries.

The Kraken will likely command popularity due to Edmonton's well-noted poor record, but the Avs aren't a popular target often. Given Georgiev's recent form, don't be surprised if tonight's game in Denver is more competitive than expected.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.