NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 11/11/23

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 24 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs

Canucks ML (+102)
Elias Pettersson Anytime Goal (+165)

Fading the Toronto Maple Leafs at home has been a profitable endeavor this season.

Toronto is 1-7 against the spread (ATS) in their own building, and with a tightly projected contest, I'll leap to the moneyline to do so with the Vancouver Canucks tonight.

I have plenty of respect for the Leafs with Joseph Woll in goal. Woll has posted 2.10 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), which is 24th among 68 qualifying goalies thus far. Toronto's prolific offense with suspect defense has resulted in a 50.0 expected-goals-for rate (xGF%), and that does pace ahead of the 'Nucks (47.7%) entering this one.

However, tonight's goaltending matchup couldn't be more split. At 15.01, Thatcher Demko leads the NHL in GSAx, and Toronto's Ilya Samsonov (-5.61 GSAx) is fourth from the bottom.

Given Samsonov's struggles, I also think we can turn to Vancouver's stud center, Elias Pettersson, for a marker tonight. Pettersson has 5 goals in 13 games this season, taking 33 shots to begin the year. He's projected with a 41% chance for a goal by numberFire's model, which would imply +155 odds.

We also get a bit of value with the Canucks positioned as underdogs there, too.

Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators

Under 6.5 (+108)

I'm not sure why this line is juiced like these two teams are some of the worst in the NHL at stopping pucks.

The Calgary Flames may be expected to play shootouts with Jacob Markstrom sidelined due to an upper-body issue. Dan Vladar (-4.39 GSAx) got steamrolled by the Leafs last night, but they'll turn to rookie Dustin Wolf tonight. Wolf has a solid 2.34 GAA in the AHL this season and made 23 of 24 saves in his only NHL appearance a year ago. I see him as a significant upgrade over Vladar -- and so do his teammates.

These aren't horrible defensive clubs, either. Calgary allows the 14th-most expected goals per 60 in the NHL (3.13), and the Ottawa Senators (3.18) are slightly worse. Joonas Korpisalo (-0.05 GSAx) hasn't really made things better, but FanDuel Sportsbook expects at least seven goals 56.7% of the time here? That seems a bit rich for a lot of "average" going on in this one.

numberFire's model expects an under 54.8% of the time here, which shows tremendous value at plus money.

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning ML (+102)

The Carolina Hurricanes are 4-0 at home, but they've been a squishier 4-6 on the road, and I don't love their chances to cash as a road favorite against the Tampa Bay Lightning, either.

Carolina is turning to Pyotr Kochetkov in goal tonight, and he's 60th of 68 qualifying goaltenders in GSAx (-4.94) this season. Even worse, that accumulation has happened in just three starts. Tampa's star-studded attack is having another quality campaign, posting the 11th-best expected goals per 60 minutes (3.29) in hockey so far.

The Canes are at just 3.24 expected goals per 60, and they'll be facing a much stronger goaltender. Jonas Johansson has actually done a solid job in Andrei Vasilevskiy's stead, posting 1.18 GSAx to not actively hurt the team.

numberFire's model projects Tampa to win this game 63.9% of the time, which makes the Bolts' moneyline its best value bet of the day.

Washington Capitals at New York Islanders

Evgeny Kuznetsov 3+ Shots on Goal (+104)

NHL lineup news doesn't quite move betting lines like the NFL or NBA, and Evgeny Kuznetsov is a little proof of that here.

Kuznetsov got a promotion on Wednesday to the Washington Capitals' top line and has posted at least 22:45 TOI amidst two games in that role. He averaged 21:53 TOI in October, so the bump in shifts next to Alex Ovechkin will help him put points in the box score moving forward.

For the entire season, Kuz is averaging 2.75 shots per game, and he's posted at least three in both games since the promotion. This mark at even money feels like a gift considering the projected matchup and game environment tonight.

The opposing New York Islanders are third-worst in Corsi Against per 60 minutes (69.9), but their prolific goaltending duo has stopped a bunch of those pucks. We don't care if they go in for this prop, and it might be better if they don't. As a +150 underdog in Long Island tonight, the Caps could keep rallying (and shooting) until the end of the game if they're behind.

A small shift in playing time and a plus matchup make this a good spot to back the Russian center's shots-on-goal prop.

Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken

Kraken ML (+112)
Jared McCann Anytime Goal (+195)

Death, taxes, and the Edmonton Oilers' goaltending issues blowing the primes of two of the best players in hockey.

Edmonton is 2-9 this season overall, and they're 1-5 on the road. With the fifth-best xGF% (55.3%) in hockey, you'd expect them to turn it around soon, but they will continue to get bludgeoned until they improve in net. At -8.04, Stuart Skinner is last among 68 qualifiers in GSAx, and backup Jack Campbell (-3.24 GSAx) actually has a worse mark per 60 minutes. It's an impossibly bad situation without many answers.

On the other side of this one at home, the Seattle Kraken will turn to Philipp Grubauer. Gru's strong 2023 postseason has translated to a solid 1.1 GSAx thus far for Seattle. It really doesn't matter how well the Oilers' skaters are performing; they simply shouldn't be favored over a solid netminder until we have a pulse of decent goaltending.

Skinner's issues open the door for goal props, and Jared McCann seems like our best target here. On top of leading the Kraken in shots (43), McCann's potted 6 goals in 14 games already. The winger's 16:34 TOI average isn't great, but he's firing when he's out there.

That's why numberFire's model projects him for 3.12 shots and 0.47 goals in this contest, and that goal projection translated to a scoring prop would be around +115. We're getting exceptional value on McCann to score -- especially if we think Seattle outguns Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for this win.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.