NHL Betting Picks for Wednesday 3/6/24: Targeting Some Overs

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
NHL Betting Picks for Wednesday 3/6/24: Targeting Some Overs

It's a quiet night on the ice, with a lot of the action in the NHL coming via the trades ahead of Friday's deadline.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche

Over 6.5 Goals (-112)

The Detroit Red Wings and Colorado Avalanche meet in a matchup that was the biggest rivalry in the 1990s.

In today's game, they are two of the most exciting offenses in the league. Detroit has seen their goal scoring explode this season with a couple of exciting additions, and they are the sixth-highest scoring team in the NHL. We knew Colorado would be an elite offense team going into the year, and they lead the league with 3.65 goals per game.

Both teams have had their issues defensively all season. The Wings have allowed the seventh-most expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes and are 12th in actual goals allowed per game.

The Avalanche have been better than that, but they still are an average team in both xG rate (16th) and actual goals against (15th).

Colorado has scored five goals in three of their last four games. They average 4.25 goals per 60 minutes at home this season.

This has all the makings of a high-scoring game, and we aren't laying too big of a price for it to go over. The model on numberFire agrees with this pick, giving this bet a slight edge.

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 6.5 Goals (-114)

The Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs have played some wild games recently, which leads us to liking the over in this spot. Just this season, these two have played twice, and those games resulted in a total of 10 and 12 goals scored.

Toronto is second in the league with 3.61 goals per game. They have strong underlying metrics, as well, being fifth in xG per 60 minutes.

Buffalo is not the same explosive offense that we saw last season when they finished third in goals. Their top line of Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch have all missed time at different points of this season, but they are healthy now.

The Sabres will benefit from facing Ilya Samsonov in net for the Leafs, who has the fifth-worst goals saved above expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes in the NHL. Toronto has given three different goalies significant playing time, and Samsonov has definitely been the worst of them.

With the propensity for games between these teams to go off the rails, I definitely like the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.