Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Wild Card Wednesday

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Bryce Harper (+410)
• Spencer Jones (+420)
• Seiya Suzuki (+430)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Bryce Harper (+410)

Phillies at Braves, 2 p.m. ET

The Philadelphia Phillies are in a must-win spot, and I like their matchup with Tyler Mahle.

The Atlanta Braves‘ RHP posted a 9.7% swinging-strike rate and 4.01 SIERA this season. Left-handed hitters tagged him for a 43.7% fly-ball rate.

Enter Bryce Harper.

Harper hit 29 dingers this season, 25 of which came against righties. In all, he put up a gaudy .424 wOBA in the split.

With the Phillies’ season on the line and in a good matchup versus Mahle, Harper can leave the yard.

Home Run Prediction: Spencer Jones (+410)

Red Sox at Yankees, 8 p.m. ET

Sonny Gray is a very good pitcher, but I’m bullish on this matchup for Spencer Jones.

As good as Gray is, he didn’t miss a ton of bats this year, producing a 9.9% swinging-strike rate.

That’s a big deal for Jones because whiffs are his big bugaboo as he had a 36.3% K rate in 2026. Raw power is not an issue, with Jones putting up a 45.5% hard-hit rate and 47.9% fly-ball rate against right-handers.

Jones is a pinch-hit risk if he comes up against a southpaw out of the Boston Red Sox bullpen, but that’s where FanDuel’s Pinch Hit Protection can come in handy.

Home Run Prediction: Seiya Suzuki (+430)

Cubs at Padres, 10 p.m. ET

The Chicago Cubs‘ offense got dominated by Michael King last night. I like their chances to bounce back against Nick Pivetta.

Pivetta is a quality hurler, but he’s thrown just 34.2 MLB innings this year due to injury. He’s always been a fly-ball pitcher, and that was no different this campaign as he allowed a 52.3% fly-ball rate.

In 2025, Pivetta permitted a 46.3% fly-ball rate and 1.48 homers per nine to right-handed hitters, showing some reverse splits.

That puts me on Seiya Suzuki, who hit 26 jacks this year and 32 the season before. He had a 46.7% fly-ball rate in righty-righty matchups, and despite this game being at Petco, I like these odds on Suzuki to hit a tank.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.