NHL Betting Picks for Thursday 2/8/24: Lightning Looking to Bounce Back

It's a bit of a lighter Thursday than normal, with just seven games tonight. We can, however, still find some bets to make on this slate.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers

Under 6.5 Goals (-138)

The Washington Capitals are no longer a team that we expect goals from. They are averaging the third-fewest goals per game at just 2.38 per night. This has coincided with Alex Ovechkin's lack of goals, as he has just 10 this season.

They have been fairly good defensively to keep them afloat in the standings, ranking in the top half of the league in goals against average.

The Caps will face the Florida Panthers on the road tonight. Florida has been an elite defensive team this season. They are second in expected goals (xG) against, second in shot attempts against, and second in scoring chances against -- all on a 60-minute basis.

The Panthers will have Sergei Bobrovsky in net. Bobrovsky has been good this year, saving 7.3 goals above expected. That clip ranks14th in the NHL.

It's difficult to imagine Washington experiencing much offensive joy in this game, and if the Caps score two goals or fewer, it will be hard for this game to exceed the 6.5 total.

The model on numberFire likes the under in this game, as well, and it makes a lot of sense given what we know about these teams.

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

Lightning Moneyline (+116)

We liked the other New York team to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning last night, and that came through. But Tampa has a chance to leave the Big Apple with two points from tonight's game.

The Lightning had won three games in a row before last night, and overall, they have gone 8-2-0 in their last 10 games. They also had scored at least five goals in five of their seven games before facing a solid defensive team in the New York Rangers.

Tonight, they will face Patrick Roy's New York Islanders. Despite their reputation, the Isles are anything but a solid defensive team. They allow the second-most shot attempts per 60 minutes as well as the sixth-most expected goals per 60. While the Isles look to be improved under Roy, they've still allowed more than 70 shot attempts against across the last two games.

A particular mismatch for Tampa could be with the man advantage. The Bolts have the league's best power play at 29.8% and will face the league's worst penalty kill as the Islanders kill off just 72.1% of their penalties.

Something that seems to be baked into this line is the fact that Jonas Johansson will be starting in goal for the Lightning. That would be a significant downgrade for Tampa in net compared to Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, Vasilevskiy hadn't played since January 27th before taking the net last night. With the way Tampa likes to ride him, it wouldn't shock me to see him out there again.

If Vasilevskiy does play, the line will likely move in Tampa's favor.

Either way, numberFire's model rates this as a two-star bet tonight, so it is a fine wager even if Vasilevskiy sits.

Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes

Avalanche Moneyline (+115)

The Colorado Avalanche have lost the first two games after the all-star break and now face a good team in the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Hurricanes are coming off a loss themselves on Tuesday. The 'Canes continue to have an elite analytical profile, but some of the better teams might be able to get to them. A team like the Avalanche fits the bill as one of those teams.

Colorado has elite finishing talent from Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar. These are the type players who can do damage against a goaltender like Pyotr Kochetkov, who has allowed 4.6 goals above expected.

While Carolina is one of the best possession teams in the league, Colorado averages more scoring chances and high-danger chances per 60 minutes. It also helps that Colorado has those talented finishers to take those chances, which is why they are second in the league in goals per game.

We took the Vancouver Canucks against the Hurricanes on Tuesday for some of the same reasons, and it hit for us. It could happen again today, and with the Avs at +115, I'm happy to take Colorado in this game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.