NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday 2/6/24: Back the Canucks as Road Underdogs?

We're back with close to a full slate of games tonight, with eight on tap tonight. Let's look for some places where it makes sense to wager.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins

Jets Moneyline (-105)

A surprising team to be second in the Western Conference, the Winnipeg Jets begin the second half of the season on the road.

They didn't use the break to just rest on their laurels. They decided to make a trade to improve their forward depth. In comes Sean Monahan from the Montreal Canadiens, who is having a bounce-back season. He already has his most points in a season since 2019-20.

Something impressive about the Jets and their surge to the top of the standings is that they've been missing a key forward for nearly the entire time. Kyle Connor got injured on December 10th, and he didn't return until January 16th. Mark Scheifele was hurt on January 10th and is returning tonight.

The way the Jets have been winning has been because of their strong goal prevention, as they've allowed the fewest goals per game in the league. They also rank in the top 10 in shot attempt rate, expected goal rate, and scoring chance rate.

Winnipeg will face the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight. Pittsburgh is definitely not a bad team, even though they sit outside the playoffs currently. They just haven't been able to convert their expected goals (3.48 per 60 minutes) into actual goals (2.92 per 60) all season. It's unlikely they'll be able to do so against a team as good defensively as the Jets, though.

I believe the market is undervaluing how the Jets have added two top-six centers to their lineup, and they were already playing great before that. They arguably have one of the deeper forward groups in the league now.

The model at numberFire agrees with this bet, so I'd lay -105 with Winnipeg here.

Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins

Under 5.5 Goals (+112)

The Calgary Flames also made a trade during the All-Star break. Unlike the Jets, they were the team selling, not buying. They traded Elias Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks, who was their fourth-leading scorer this season and second-leading scorer last season.

Calgary was already a team that struggled to score goals before they moved Lindholm. They were 17th in goals per game and 15th in expected goals per 60 minutes. It's unlikely that they'll be able to score much tonight.

The Flames are on the road against one of the league's best defensive teams, the Boston Bruins. Boston has conceded the fourth-fewest goals per game thanks to their elite goaltending.

Speaking of elite goaltending, that's really the only thing keeping Calgary afloat in the West this season. Jacob Markstrom is sixth in the NHL in goals saved above expected (GSAx).

The Bruins will be starting Jeremy Swayman, who comes one spot above Markstrom in GSAx in fifth. Both of these teams are likely to get great goaltending, which should help keep this game under the total.

I like taking the under in this game getting the +112, and once again, numberFire's model is in agreement with this pick.

Vancouver Canucks at Carolina Hurricanes

Canucks Moneyline (+125)

The Canucks have been a team that has been good to bettors this season as an underdog, and hopefully, we can continue to ride that tonight.

They made the splashy move to get Elias Lindholm from Calgary, giving them an even deeper forward group than they already had. Lindholm is a former 42-goal scorer who they can fit in on their second line. Adding that to the team that's averaging the most goals per game is scary for everyone else.

They'll face a Carolina Hurricanes team that is definitely one of the better ones in the league. But they do have a flaw that has been fatal for them in some instances -- goaltending. They have the third-worst team save percentage in the NHL.

Carolina will be starting Pyotr Kochetkov in goal. The only positive about that is that he's been better than Antti Raanta, but Kochetkov is still at -4.6 GSAx this season.

The Hurricanes' formula is to limit shot attempts from their opponents and hope that their goaltending will be good enough facing just a few chances. That formula is tough against a team like the Canucks, who rely more on ruthless efficiency due to top-end talent. Vancouver has the league's highest team shooting percentage by a full percentage point.

Vancouver's goalie can withstand the barrage of shots that's likely coming from the 'Canes. Thatcher Demko is second in the league in GSAx this season and could be nominated for the Vezina Trophy at year's end.

The odds on this game seem to reflect that Carolina is likely to generate a ton more shots than Vancouver, but they may be neglecting that Vancouver has an edge in both finishing talent and goaltending. Sure, while a lot of that stuff can be random in a one-game sample, when it's been fairly consistent for both teams, it can definitely be a pattern that carries over to this game.

We're getting a nice price on Vancouver at +125, and numberFire's model rates this as a two-star bet tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.