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NFL Week 9 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 9's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
NFL Week 9 Predictions
Ravens at Dolphins Prediction
Spread Prediction: Ravens -6.1
Total Prediction: 49.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Falcons at Patriots Prediction
Spread Prediction: Patriots -5.7
Total Prediction: 45.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Panthers at Packers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Packers -13.5
Total Prediction: 50.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Projecting Bryce Young as starter for the Carolina Panthers though with downgrades due to offensive line injuries. Young's pass-catchers aren't awful now that they're healthy, so I think the Panthers can do enough to exceed these hyper-low expectations and push this total over 44.5.
Broncos at Texans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Texans -1.7
Total Prediction: 44.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I worry deeply about the Houston Texans against a pass rush this nasty, but it's two decent-enough offenses playing indoors. That's enough for me to take the over on such a low number.
Chargers at Titans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chargers -9.6
Total Prediction: 43.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Bears at Bengals Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bears -1.1
Total Prediction: 44.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Both of these defenses are booty, but offensive efficiency is the main driver of my totals model, so I can't get anywhere near the 50s, personally. These teams have played in wacky games, and maybe that continues, but I do think the under is the proper play.
Colts at Steelers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Colts -2.7
Total Prediction: 50.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
49ers at Giants Prediction
Spread Prediction: 49ers -2.5
Total Prediction: 48.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Projecting Brock Purdy as the starter for the San Francisco 49ers.
Vikings at Lions Prediction
Spread Prediction: Lions -10.6
Total Prediction: 49.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I'm willing to boost the Minnesota Vikings a smidge if we get good news on their offensive-line health, but I'm keeping expectations low until then.
Saints at Rams Prediction
Spread Prediction: Rams -13.0
Total Prediction: 49.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The New Orleans Saints' defense has largely struggled on the road, and they're facing a healthy Los Angeles Rams offense coming off a bye. I think the Rams can do enough alone to make the over a quality play.
Jaguars at Raiders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Jaguars -1.7
Total Prediction: 41.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The Las Vegas Raiders could trade Jakobi Meyers, and the Jacksonville Jaguars continue to have weird vibes around Brian Thomas Jr. I'm willing to back this under as we're getting a win on a key number of 44.
Chiefs at Bills Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chiefs -1.0
Total Prediction: 54.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Seahawks at Commanders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Seahawks -1.9
Total Prediction: 47.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Showing some value in the Washington Commanders, but I need clarity on the injuries to Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Laremy Tunsil before acting upon it.
Cardinals at Cowboys Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cowboys -2.6
Total Prediction: 50.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I've gotten burned betting unders on Dallas Cowboys games this year, and those scars are hurting my enthusiasm about going back to the well even at such a lofty number.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
