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NFL Week 4 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 4's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
NFL Week 4 Predictions
Seahawks at Cardinals Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cardinals -3.2
Total Prediction: 47.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Willing to bet both the Arizona Cardinals' moneyline and the over here. Still not fully sold on the Seattle Seahawks' defense being an elite unit despite liking both their coaching staff and personnel. Injuries to both secondaries give me faith we see some points.
Vikings at Steelers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Vikings -2.5
Total Prediction: 40.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Eagles at Buccaneers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Eagles -0.7
Total Prediction: 47.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: No Mike Evans, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sound like they'll get both Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs back. Those are two needle-movers to offset the Evans injury, so I'm happy to take the 3.5 with the Bucs.
Saints at Bills Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bills -14.7
Total Prediction: 55.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The Buffalo Bills could be an over machine with their defense paired with an elite offense, so while my model is likely too high, I do still feel good about over 48.5.
Browns at Lions Prediction
Spread Prediction: Lions -13.6
Total Prediction: 52.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Despite what they did last week, I'm still below market on the Cleveland Browns' defense. I think you can throw on them, and the Detroit Lions have shown they know how to exploit a weakness. Whether you want the spread, the over, or something on the Lions' team total, I want to buy into Detroit here.
Titans at Texans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Texans -8.7
Total Prediction: 43.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Almost all of the Houston Texans' struggles this year have come on late downs. If they can figure that out, I still think the offense can be competent, so I don't mind backing an over as they head back indoors.
Chargers at Giants Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chargers -5.7
Total Prediction: 45.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Commanders at Falcons Prediction
Spread Prediction: Commanders -2.0
Total Prediction: 48.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This number is assuming that Jayden Daniels starts for the Washington Commanders.
Panthers at Patriots Prediction
Spread Prediction: Patriots -2.2
Total Prediction: 43.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The Carolina Panthers have been more fine than abysmal this year, so I don't think they should be catching 5.5 against the New England Patriots.
Colts at Rams Prediction
Spread Prediction: Rams -3.9
Total Prediction: 48.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Jaguars at 49ers Prediction
Spread Prediction: 49ers -7.0
Total Prediction: 49.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This is assuming both Brock Purdy and Jauan Jennings start for the San Francisco 49ers, and I'm not fully convinced that happens. This one's a stay-away for me until we get more clarity on the injuries.
Ravens at Chiefs Prediction
Spread Prediction: Ravens -1.6
Total Prediction: 51.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Have Xavier Worthy marked as "in" right now but am not fully convinced he's back out there.
Bears at Raiders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Raiders -0.9
Total Prediction: 44.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Packers at Cowboys Prediction
Spread Prediction: Packers -6.4
Total Prediction: 49.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Jets at Dolphins Prediction
Spread Prediction: Dolphins -2.4
Total Prediction: 42.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Bengals at Broncos Prediction
Spread Prediction: Broncos -9.4
Total Prediction: 44.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
