NFL Week 4 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 4's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

NOTE: Last updated Sunday at 11:11 am Eastern.

NFL Week 4 Predictions

Seahawks at Cardinals Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cardinals -3.1

Total Prediction: 47.1

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Willing to bet both the Arizona Cardinals' moneyline and the over here. Still not fully sold on the Seattle Seahawks' defense being an elite unit despite liking both their coaching staff and personnel. Injuries to both secondaries give me faith we see some points.

Vikings at Steelers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Vikings -2.1

Total Prediction: 40.1

Betting Odds

Eagles at Buccaneers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -0.6

Total Prediction: 47.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: No Mike Evans, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sound like they'll get both Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs back. Those are two needle-movers to offset the Evans injury, so I'm happy to take the 3.5 with the Bucs.

Saints at Bills Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -14.4

Total Prediction: 55.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The Buffalo Bills could be an over machine with their defense paired with an elite offense, so while my model is likely too high, I do still feel good about over 48.5.

Browns at Lions Prediction

Spread Prediction: Lions -13.5

Total Prediction: 52.6

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Despite what they did last week, I'm still below market on the Cleveland Browns' defense. I think you can throw on them, and the Detroit Lions have shown they know how to exploit a weakness. Whether you want the spread, the over, or something on the Lions' team total, I want to buy into Detroit here.

Titans at Texans Prediction

Spread Prediction: Texans -8.7

Total Prediction: 43.2

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Almost all of the Houston Texans' struggles this year have come on late downs. If they can figure that out, I still think the offense can be competent, so I don't mind backing an over as they head back indoors.

Chargers at Giants Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chargers -6.1

Total Prediction: 46.0

Betting Odds

Commanders at Falcons Prediction

Spread Prediction: Falcons -0.9

Total Prediction: 46.9

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This number is assuming that both Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin sit for the Washington Commanders.

Panthers at Patriots Prediction

Spread Prediction: Patriots -2.2

Total Prediction: 43.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The Carolina Panthers have been more fine than abysmal this year, so I don't think they should be catching 5.5 against the New England Patriots.

Colts at Rams Prediction

Spread Prediction: Rams -4.1

Total Prediction: 48.8

Betting Odds

Jaguars at 49ers Prediction

Spread Prediction: 49ers -7.0

Total Prediction: 48.3

Betting Odds

Ravens at Chiefs Prediction

Spread Prediction: Ravens -1.4

Total Prediction: 51.8

Betting Odds

Bears at Raiders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Raiders -1.2

Total Prediction: 44.4

Betting Odds

Packers at Cowboys Prediction

Spread Prediction: Packers -5.9

Total Prediction: 49.2

Betting Odds

Jets at Dolphins Prediction

Spread Prediction: Dolphins -2.7

Total Prediction: 40.9

Betting Odds

Bengals at Broncos Prediction

Spread Prediction: Broncos -9.6

Total Prediction: 44.2

Betting Odds

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.