Virginia vs NC State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for ACC Tournament

The No. 2 seed Virginia Cavaliers (27-4, 15-3 ACC) face off against the No. 7 seed NC State Wolfpack (20-12, 10-8 ACC) in the ACC tournament Thursday at Spectrum Center, tipping off at 12 p.m. ET. Both teams will try to take one step closer to securing an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Virginia vs. NC State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 12, 2026
• Game time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
• Arena: Spectrum Center

Virginia vs. NC State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Virginia win (72.1%)

Before you place a wager on Virginia-NC State contest (in which Virginia is a 6.5-point favorite and the over/under is set at 150.5 points), below are a few betting trends and insights for Thursday's game.

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Virginia vs. NC State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Virginia has compiled a 15-16-0 ATS record so far this year.
• NC State is 15-17-0 ATS this year.
• Virginia covers the spread when it is a 6.5-point favorite or more 40.9% of the time. That's more often than NC State covers as an underdog of 6.5 or more (never covered this season).
• The Cavaliers have a worse record against the spread at home (8-9-0) than they do in away games (5-5-0).
• The Wolfpack's winning percentage against the spread at home is .471 (8-9-0). On the road, it is .400 (4-6-0).
• Virginia is 8-10-0 against the spread in conference play this year.
• NC State is 8-11-0 against the spread in ACC action this season.

Virginia vs. NC State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Virginia has come away with 22 wins in the 25 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• This year, the Cavaliers have won 18 of 20 games when listed as at least -280 or better on the moneyline.
• NC State has won one of the five games it was the moneyline underdog this season (20%).
• The Wolfpack have not yet won a game when it entered play as a moneyline underdog with odds of +220 or longer in three chances.
• Virginia has an implied victory probability of 73.7% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Virginia vs. NC State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Virginia is outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game with a +391 scoring differential overall. It puts up 80.9 points per game (70th in college basketball) and gives up 68.3 per outing (45th in college basketball).
• Thijs De Ridder is 224th in the nation with a team-high 15.9 points per game.
• NC State puts up 84.0 points per game (25th in college basketball) while allowing 76.4 per outing (243rd in college basketball). It has a +244 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 7.6 points per game.
• Darrion Williams' team-leading 14 points per game rank him 408th in the country.
• The Cavaliers pull down 37.1 rebounds per game (12th in college basketball) while conceding 29.0 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 8.1 boards per game.
• De Ridder is 244th in college basketball action with 6.3 rebounds per game to lead the Cavaliers.
• The Wolfpack rank 198th in college basketball at 31.7 rebounds per game. That's 1.2 fewer than the 32.9 their opponents average.
• Ven-Allen Lubin leads the Wolfpack with 7.1 rebounds per game (144th in college basketball).
• Virginia's 103.4 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 58th in college basketball, and the 87.3 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 32nd in college basketball.
• The Wolfpack average 106.9 points per 100 possessions on offense (21st in college basketball), and concede 97.2 points per 100 possessions (237th in college basketball).

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