NFL Survivor Picks for Week 14: Can the Packers Carry Their Momentum Into Monday?

There aren't many more crucial things than nailing your NFL survivor picks, so we're here to help.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 14.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 14

These are the top five teams by expected win probability, according to numberFire's model. All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans
  • Week 14's highest win probability (80.3%) belongs to the Miami Dolphins (9-3). They enter Monday Night Football as a 13.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans (4-8), and it's not hard to see why. Tennessee's fourth-worst pass defense should have all the trouble in the world containing Miami's third-best pass offense. The Dolphins have had a pretty easy go of it schedule-wise, but it's telling that their three losses this year have come against the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills. They may struggle when it comes to harsher competition, but Mike McDaniel and company know how to get the job done against weak teams.
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
  • On Thanksgiving day, we saw a 49ers-Seahawks matchup play out to the tune of an 18-point San Francisco victory. More of the same is projected this Sunday, with the 49ers entering as 10.5-point favorites. The hype surrounding this Seattle team has faded now that they've dropped four of their last five games, but they were able to give the Dallas Cowboys a run for their money last Thursday. But given this is a divisional game for SF, and they have easier matchups on the horizon, this isn't the most suitable week to side with the Niners.
• New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
  • Which team is the best survivor pick this week, and who are the Carolina Panthers playing this week? Those are two questions that have become conflated this season. The Saints (5-7) are up to take on a Panthers team that has just one win to their name. Although it's not as cut and dry as it may seem -- Carolina's new coaching change had them holding on until the final minutes in a three-point Week 12 loss -- siding with the Saints is a solid move, and there's a much better chance you have New Orleans on your board going into Week 14 than you do the aforementioned teams.
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
  • The Cowboys (9-3) are given a 72.7% win probability over the Eagles (10-2), and even though Dallas is undefeated at home, there's no good reason to side with them against a team with the best record in the league. Philly won this matchup in Week 9. Dallas may be the rightful favorite going into Round 2, but chances are you've either already chosen the Cowboys as a survivor pick, or you'll have a better opportunity to do so down the road. The Cowboys have the lowest (tied) survivor pick rate this week, per Yahoo.
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
  • The only opposing team you may want to bully more than the Panthers are the New England Patriots. The Pats have put up 13 total points over their last three games. They'll be wincing this Thursday against a Steelers team that touts the ninth-best defense in the NFL and will be forced to take the field without Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), the player who generates the majority of their near non-existent offense. The fact that Mitchell Trubisky is the more trusted signal-caller in this TNF matchup speaks volumes about the game quality we can expect, but the Steelers' 72.0% win probability has 19.57% (second-highest pick rate) of the public siding with them in Week 14.

Digging Deeper

Have you already used all the teams mentioned above? Here are some other options.

Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers (6-6) pulled off an upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night and will now look to claim their fourth straight victory. After starting the season with a 2-5 record, the Packers have turned their season around and enter Week 14 with -215 playoff odds.

This momentum, paired with a New York Giants date, should make the Pack a great survivor pick this week.

The Giants are in the midst of a two-game winning streak, though it's a fairly misleading feat. They beat the 30th-ranked Washington Commanders (4-9) and narrowly edged out the 29th-ranked Patriots in Week 12.

Per numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, Green Bay is the 12th-best team, while the Giants sit far behind in the 31st spot. The Tommy DeVito storyline has been fun to watch, and he has thrown four touchdown passes to zero interceptions over his last two games. But each of these games came against pass defenses that fare in the bottom five, whereas the Packers have the 16th-ranked pass D. Plus, Devito's Passing NEP (-21.28) is only noteworthy for its weakness.

Jordan Love, meanwhile, has been excellent over his last three games, throwing for 857 yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions during this span.

The Packers have a 68.5% win probability and are 6.5-point favorites in this one, which in my opinion errs more on the side of short-selling Green Bay's abilities. They are the public's favorite pick this week with a 19.84% pick rate as of this writing.

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans (7-5) took a hit on Sunday with Tank Dell sustaining an injury and being ruled out for the season. The C.J. Stroud-to-Dell connection was the rookie story of the season, but Houston still came out of Sunday victorious and should do so again versus the New York Jets (4-8).

The Jets have made being a starting quarterback in the NFL an undesirable occupation. Reports suggest that Zach Wilson is keen on watching the game from the sidelines this Sunday, whereas Robert Saleh insists that Wilson wants the ball. Despite his hesitancy to name a starter, it seems Saleh will assign signal-calling duties to Wilson -- this afternoon Tim Boyle was released from the team. Wilson has the second-worst Passing NEP among starting quarterbacks.

The Jets have the worst-ranked offense in the league, but their defense comes into this week as the fifth-best, per numberFire. However, Stroud should be up for the defensive challenge. He's been astonishing in his rookie season, throwing for more yards than any other quarterback in the league and touting the fourth-best Passing NEP.

Houston has a positive seven turnover differential (fifth-best), while New York has a negative four differential (tied for eighth-worst).

It's an away game for the Texans, the loss of Dell doesn't help, and the Jets are a team that allows the second-fewest yards per pass attempt. But Stroud beat two teams whose pass D's rank just one spot after the Jets, and it won't take moving mountains to silence this Jets offense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your