NBA DFS Picks: Saturday 12/14/24

If you're looking to have some fun this basketball season, NBA DFS on FanDuel has you covered.

With NBA DFS, you can put your hoops knowledge to the test and ride with players you think will go off in a given night.

To help you along the way, we've got a bunch of tools here at FanDuel Research. Specifically, our NBA DFS projections, powered by numberFire, update throughout the day to reflect current news.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA DFS Picks for Today

Guards

Top Priorities

Trae Young ($9,200)

It's kind of insane the MVP love for Trae Young is coming now as he's objectively struggling.

Young has shot just 35.8% from the field in December but has still managed to top 39 FanDuel points (FDP) in four of his five games. You have to wonder what the output could have looked with a normal rate of makes; Young's usage rate (25.9%) and rate of potential assists per game (24.0; best in the NBA) are enormous.

I've long called Young's fantasy profile that of Nikola Jokic without the boards, and this is a friendly salary for him in the game with a significantly higher over-under (233.0) of today's two NBA Cup semifinals.

Fred VanVleet ($7,100)

With the acceptance of a painfully low floor, Fred VanVleet is hard to turn away from at this salary.

He's topped 33 FDP in four of his last six overall, but the exception were sub-20-FDP night-enders. I'm extremely wary of expectations for him in a game with just a 216.0-point total, but he hasn't had extreme issues with the Oklahoma City Thunder in two meetings this season (31.8 FDP per game).

On a full slate, I'd turn elsewhere. On this two-game docket, it's hard to look past his combination of talent and minutes per game (35.1) -- and our NBA DFS projections agree. They're expecting 35.9 FDP in 36.0 minutes.

Others to Consider

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,100)

I just see no reason to turn to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over Young when we'll need salary in the frontcourt, but his positional matchup is the best on OKC. Surprisingly, the Houston Rockets' stingy defense still gives up the eighth-most FDP to opposing point guards.

Gary Trent Jr. ($4,000)

This blurb could also be reserve guard A.J. Green ($3,900). It'll just come down to whether or not Gary Trent Jr. starts hot from outside to earn minutes at the two. Green will likely replace him if not. The Atlanta Hawks' league-most 41.4 3PA allowed per game has me leaning toward a dart at the starter.

Wings

Top Priorities

Luguentz Dort ($5,000)

The case for Luguentz Dort hasn't changed since I wrote him up on Tuesday after just a $100 salary bump.

He's OKC's starting three in the wake of Chet Holmgren (hip), which led to 27.2 FDP in 32 minutes last time out. He's averaging 28.6 FDP per 36 minutes this season, so this mark is probably too low in a full role.

Dort (32 minutes) maintained his on-court role ahead of Cason Wallace (31), Alex Caruso (22), and Isaiah Joe (17) against the Dallas Mavericks. Wallace's uptick on Tuesday was somewhat interesting, but Caruso figures to eat into it as he's more than three games back from injury.

We've got Lu projected for 24.5 FDP in 32.2 minutes. He's a high-floor place to go in cash games.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,800)

Though listed probable with a quad injury, expect Bogdan Bogdanovic to lead the charge off Atlanta's bench again on Saturday.

Bogie's season didn't begin until November 18th, leaving him behind De'Andre Hunter ($5,800) and Zaccharie Risacher on the wing. The latter's role is plummeting; the top pick played only 17 minutes on Wednesday.

However, we know the flamethrower that Bogdanovic can bring chucking 9.8 three-point attempts per 36 minutes, and Atlanta will leave him out there if he's hot. He's topped 25 minutes in five games so far and has eclipsed 23 FDP -- fine for this salary -- in all of them.

The Milwaukee Bucks' iffy three-point D (20th in 3PA allowed) could present an opportunity for the sniper to fire.

Others to Consider

Amen Thompson ($6,300)

Dillon Brooks is questionable for his usual minutes with an illness, which would be a floor boost to Amen Thompson on the wing for Houston. He's topped 40 FDP in his last three games playing at least 30 minutes, so I'd quickly make him a priority if the Rockets' instigator is ill.

Khris Middleton ($5,500)

On this short slate, we can actually do worse than Khris Middleton's floor this season of 22 FDP. Like Trent Jr., he's got a real opportunity to fill it up against Atlanta's league-worst three-point defense.

Bigs

Top Priorities

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000)

On a slate short of options at either power forward or center, it's hard to turn away from Giannis Antetokounmpo's heater.

"The Greek Freak" has topped 30 points in four straight games and has surprisingly underperformed in the box score relative to his rebounding chances (16.5) and potential assists (8.0) per game in this stretch.

While OKC-Houston is pegged to be a defensive battle, Atlanta-Milwaukee's high total could lead to some of Giannis' preferred methods to score. The Hawks allow the 10th-most fast break points per game (16.2).

A neutral site in Las Vegas could hurt the slate's other stars that need to shoot. With just 3.1% of Giannis' shots coming from behind the arc, his security to score is significantly higher.

Jabari Smith ($5,300)

No player in the $5,000 range is guaranteed Jabari Smith's court time. He's eclipsed 34 minutes in six straight games.

That's a good building block when this should be a matchup where the near-seven-footer should be able to punish 6'8" Jalen Williams in his positional matchup. Smith did just that with 39.8 FDP in 40 minutes during the Rockets' only game against the Thunder where Holmgren didn't play.

This is also a sneaky matchup for Smith's rebounding; OKC allows the 10th-most boards per game to power forwards.

We've got Smith projected for 28.9 FDP in 34.2 minutes. I have an extremely difficult time not locking him next to Giannis in any format at the two power forward spots.

Others to Consider

Isaiah Hartenstein ($7,700)

Center gets interesting beyond them. Atlanta's timeshare also comes with Alperen Sengun, Isaiah Hartenstein, and a pair of Bucks options. Sengun's salary is impossible to sneak in wih Trae and Giannis, so I get turning to Hart's consistent production. He's only dipped below 33 FDP once all season.

Brook Lopez ($5,100)

Brook Lopez just seems absolutely dust on the offensive end. He's taken just 27 shots all month in a full role, enhancing his career-long concerns with rebounding. Bobby Portis ($6,800) is getting more burn in place of Taurean Prince with Giannis sliding to the three; I prefer him at the pivot to Lopez.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.