NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 4/4/24: Underdogs ATS Lead the Way

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 4/4/24: Underdogs ATS Lead the Way

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks

Kings +3.5 (-112) Over 213 (-108)

The New York Knicks are looking to snap their three-game losing streak against the visiting Sacramento Kings, who ended their five-game homestand with back-to-back wins. Each team will have a pair of notable players out due to injuries.

For Sacramento, Malik Monk, who totals 15.4 points per game (PPG), and Kevin Huerter (10.2 PPG) sustained notable injuries over the last week. Monk is expected to miss four-to-six weeks with a sprained MCL, and Huerter suffered a season-ending shoulder injury.

New York's Julius Randle (24.0 PPG) also had his season ended with shoulder surgery, and OG Anunoby (14.5 PPG in 17 games with the Knicks) continues to miss time with an elbow setback.

Clearly, these are all injuries that should be considered when making our picks. Which team seems to struggle a bit more with these players out of the lineup?

Without Randle and Anunoby on the court, New York's shooting splits take a noticeable dip. They shoot 53.0% on two-pointers (9th-worst) and 36.5% on threes (13th-worst) this season. The Knicks' offense already lacks ideal efficiency, and it drops to 51.3% from two and 35.6% from three with Randle and Anunoby absent.

For reference, the Brooklyn Nets have the third-worst two-point percentage at 52.3%, and the Utah Jazz's 35.6% three-point percentage is the 10th-worst mark in the Association.

The Kings' two-point percentage goes from 56.4% (seventh-best) to 52.0% when Monk and Huerter are out of the mix. This is a drastic drop, but their three-point percentage jumps from 36.6% (15th-best) to 39.9%. This isn't a limited sample size, either, with the two players off of the court for over 950 possessions this season.

I'm circling Sacramento's three-point shooting for this matchup. I believe this could lead the Kings to a cover on the road. They have converted 41.2% of their threes over the past three games, and New York gives up the 12th-most three-point attempts per contest. The Knicks rank in the top 10 for most interior defense categories, but the perimeter defense is susceptible.

I'm agreeing with the public, which has 58% of spread picks on Sacramento. I also like the over for this one.

The over is 7-3 during New York's last 10 games. The Knicks are logging 121.2 PPG over the previous five contests, and the Kings rank in the bottom half of defensive rating. Plus, Sacramento should have the ability to knockdown three-balls against New York's perimeter defense.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers +4 (-108)

Two top-four seeds are meeting in the Western Conference with the Denver Nuggets paying a visit to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Nuggets are getting an overwhelming amount of support for tonight's game, as 81% of moneyline bets are on Denver and 69% of spread picks are backing the Nuggets.

The absence of Kawhi Leonard is an obvious concern for the Clippers. PBP Stats actually reveals an intriguing trend for when Kawhi is out. In 805 possessions with Leonard off of the court while Paul George and James Harden are playing, L.A. shoots 57.3% on twos and 41.2% on threes. This is a significant jump for the Clips, who convert 55.7% of twos (11th-best) and 38.7% of threes (4th-best) on the season.

Los Angeles' two-point percentage could be a major key, for the Nuggets give up the 14th-most points in the paint per game.

Denver could also be without Jamal Murray for the seventh consecutive game as he is questionable. Over the last six games, the Nuggets are 2-4 against the spread (ATS). The Nuggets' three-point percentage also plummets without Murray, going from 37.2% (12th-best) to 32.6%.

Backing a home underdog in a close game does not take much convincing for me. I believe the stats say enough. The Clippers' shooting efficiency has actually increased without Leonard, and Denver has performed under expectations due to Murray missing from action. I'm backing L.A. to cover at home.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.