NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: RAPTOR King of Tough 250

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: RAPTOR King of Tough 250

If you're betting both the NASCAR Cup Series and Xfinity Series this weekend in Atlanta, proceed with caution. The track is almost entirely different across the two series.

In the Cup Series, they're running their superspeedway package. It leads to tighter packs, pretty similar to what we saw last week in Daytona.

The Xfinity Series will still have drafting in play, so it's not a night-and-day difference. But you see a race that more closely resembles one at a 1.5-mile track, leading to a higher degree of predictability in the finishing order than what we're likely to see in Cup.

That's reflected in the win sims below. Last week, Austin Hill was the model's favorite at 11.2%. This week, he's well clear of that mark, and it's not just because he notched yet another win in that race. It's mostly just due to how Atlanta has raced on the Xfinity Series side of things the past two years.

Sim Win
Sim T3
Sim T5
Austin Hill18.9%41.6%55.0%
Cole Custer10.3%27.6%41.9%
John Hunter Nemechek9.6%25.9%40.3%
Riley Herbst9.4%24.6%37.8%
A.J. Allmendinger7.8%22.5%35.7%
Justin Allgaier7.4%22.0%35.8%
Ryan Truex6.1%20.2%32.8%
View Full Table

Although Hill is the favorite again -- by a wide margin -- I'm still below market. His implied odds in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds are 22.2% at +350. So, we once again have to suck it up and pray his run of terror doesn't continue.

The primary value for me lies in Riley Herbst (+1200). FanDuel's higher on Herbst than some other spots, and I'm higher than FanDuel, so it's possible the model's overselling Herbst's chances. But I'm not convinced that's the case.

Herbst very easily could have won on Monday in Daytona had he not received a late-race penalty for a restart violation. He also had an eighth-place average running position and was battling for the lead prior to that late caution.

Herbst still rallied to finish 6th, giving him 5 top-6 finishes in 12 pack races since the start of 2022. A pair of those have come in the revamped Atlanta, a place where he has 3 top-10s and 2 top-5s since the reconfiguration.

Earning his first win on a 1.5-mile track last year, Herbst clearly made gains in the speed department late. Even if my model is a good amount above market on Herbst, I'm having a hard time saying that it's wrong in this instance.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.