MLB Betting Picks for Thursday 4/25/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, 3:10 p.m. ET

Padres -1.5 (+102)

Wrapping up a four-game series in Denver, the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies will meet in an NL West clash. Given Thursday's pitching matchup, I like San Diego to win by two or more runs (+102).

The Rockies have been in the divisional cellar for the season's entirety. I'll admit -- their lineup was impressive against the Friars on Tuesday, but the majority of damage was done in the fifth inning. Still, I view the Padres as the much more formidable ball club in 2024, which is why I am willing to lay 1.5 runs on the road team.

Off the bat, numberFire agrees with my run-line play. Their projections estimate that San Diego will win on Thursday by a score of 7.33-5.49, and numberFire gives the Padres a 56.7% chance to cover the run line.

The starters on the mound are righties Randy Vasquez and Dakota Hudson. Notably, Hudson is one of only four hurlers in baseball with an 0-4 record right now. From there, his current 5.34 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) leaves much to be desired for Colorado.

Vasquez has less than 50 innings pitched at the Major-League level, so he is certainly still developing. However, his lone start for the Padres was respectable, yielding one earned run in a losing effort. On Thursday, his assignment will be easier than that of his opposite number.

San Diego's team OPS is impressive at .735, which is good enough for sixth-best clip in the National League. In that same offensive metric, the Rox are down at .679. Keep in mind -- Colorado's lineup has the luxury of playing at Coors Field for half its games whereas the Padres have their home games in a pitcher's park at sea level.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, 4:05 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-122)

Staying with the Senior Circuit, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals will close out their series from D.C. This will be the sixth head-to-head meeting of 2024 between these respective sides, and the Nats stole two of three games at Chavez Ravine earlier in April.

Thursday afternoon at Nationals Park will feature probable pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Yamamoto is still the NL Rookie of the Year favorite, listed at +470 odds to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award, but he's certainly been hittable. The Japanese hurler has surrendered at least three earned runs in three of five career outings.

The southpaw Gore has been sharp this season, but the Dodgers (.341 team wOBA) will be a very tough test. Los Angeles boasts many talented right-handed hitters, such as Mookie Betts (1.070 OPS) and Will Smith (.329 BA). Additionally, Shohei Ohtani hits left-handed pitching just fine, currently carrying a .772 OPS in the split.

The "Boys in Blue" have been an advantageous selection for over bettors (62.5% winning rate) in 2024, and that feels like the wisest angle for Thursday's bid in the District.

Nationals Park is considered a hitter's venue, showing the seventh-highest Park Factor score (102) of all active MLB stadiums. With pleasant weather and an earlier start time, the baseball should have quality carry.

In 2024, L.A. is averaging more than five runs per game. Washington has not scored at that same lofty clip, but since April 14th, the Nats have produced 4.13 runs per game. With the total at an even 8.0 runs, we always have a little extra slack if the score reflects a 4-4 tie at any point (since someone has to win, incidentally forcing the total over).

Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET

Yankees -1.5 (-118)

Another four-game set coming to an end, the Oakland Athletics and New York Yankees will be the final bid -- and lone night game -- of Thursday's slate.

As a fun fact, this is a meeting of the only two MLB franchises to win three (or more) consecutive World Series titles. In the present, the Yanks are built considerably stronger compared to the A's. According to Spotrac, New York has approximately $244 million more invested in their 2024 payroll than Oakland does. For reference, that difference is greater than the payroll of all but four MLB teams.

Financials aside, we've seen a scrappy series thus far in the Bronx. As it pertains to Thursday's game, the starting pitchers are scheduled to be lefties Nestor Cortes and Alex Wood. Neither southpaw has been especially sharp this season, but Wood has been shelled for 19 earned runs through 21.2 IP while giving up a 48.6% Statcast hard-hit rate.

When going against the Athletics, I don't mind laying the runs on New York's cast of bombers. Oakland has largely struggled in the batter's box this year, scoring fewer runs than any franchise except the Chicago White Sox.

numberFire's MLB game projections echo support for the Yankees to cover. According to numberFire's model, New York has a 54.0% likelihood to cover.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.